SPECIAL REPORT — In a 12 months of world-changing occasions – from the Center East to Ukraine, cyberattacks to undersea cable assaults, and far more – The Cipher Transient was blessed to have had dozens of prime U.S. nationwide safety officers and international specialists be part of us on our stage.
That “stage” included a banner version of our annual Risk Convention, summits of our Cyber Initiatives Group, and the first-ever Cipher Transient honors dinner – together with a gradual assortment of interviews on our digital platform.
At 12 months’s finish, we share under an inventory of among the extra memorable conversations, together with hyperlinks to the complete variations. And we thank all those that gave their time and insights; and all of you for studying and offering suggestions.
A 12 months within the making: a dialog with the pinnacle of the CIA
Central Intelligence Company (CIA) Director William Burns doesn’t give many interviews; and when he does, they’re hardly ever as lengthy or sweeping in nature because the dialog he had with Cipher Transient CEO Suzanne Kelly on the stage at this 12 months’s Risk Convention. The 2 spoke for practically an hour, and Burns took questions afterwards from our viewers. The dialog and Q&A session spanned the globe, masking “long-range challenges” posed by China, Russia, the wars within the Center East, terrorism and different threats – together with Burns’ private reflections on practically 4 years on the job as head of the CIA and an extended profession as a worldwide diplomat.
When Kelly requested which he most well-liked – the job of prime diplomat or prime spy, Burns didn’t hesitate.
“What I do now,” he stated. “I say that with nice affection for my outdated establishment and my outdated occupation, however as I stated, I genuinely love this job.”
Burns’s look got here precisely one 12 months to the day after he was to have joined us for the 2023 Risk Convention. That day occurred to have been October 7 – the date of Hamas’s assault in Southern Israel. Burns despatched his regrets then, and one 12 months later, he made good on his “rain test.” The one-year anniversary of the assaults – and the wars which have adopted – hung over the CIA Director’s remarks.
Burns — who has been personally concerned in long-running ceasefire negotiations and was again in Doha, Qatar final week for the newest spherical of talks — urged leaders within the area “to acknowledge that sufficient is sufficient, that excellent is never on the menu, particularly within the Center East,” highlighting the “human stakes” confronted by the Israeli victims and hostages and their households, and the lifeless and wounded civilians in Gaza.
On Ukraine, Burns warned of “huge challenges forward” for the Ukrainian folks, and cautioned the U.S. in opposition to “consideration deficit dysfunction” by way of supporting Kyiv for the long run. When requested about Russia’s nuclear arsenal and President Vladimir Putin’s red-line threats to make use of it, Burns stated, “We are able to’t take that flippantly…however you need to watch out to not be unnecessarily intimidated” by what he described as repeated nuclear “saber rattling” by the Russian chief.
There was far more, an you possibly can discover it right here and/or watch Burns’ look on our program The World Deciphered.
NSA Director – on the ‘biggest problem of our time’
CIA Director Burns topped an extended listing of nationwide safety leaders who joined our 2024 Risk Convention. Amongst them was Common Timothy D. Haugh, who wears the twin hats of Director of the Nationwide Safety Company (NSA) and Commander of U.S. Cyber Command (USCYBERCOM). Gen. Haugh provided remarks and took viewers questions, specializing in a spread of threats emanating from China, which he stated pose “an unprecedented problem… the best problem of our time.” Given his place, Gen. Haugh targeted on China-linked threats in our on-line world – a very well timed topic, provided that information had simply damaged of the cyber actor now often called “Salt Storm” that was discovered to have breached the networks of telecommunications corporations AT&T, Verizon, and Lumen Applied sciences. The hackers, who had been traced to China, appeared to have focused the gadgets of prime officers, together with the cellphone of President-elect Donald Trump, and captured details about federal wiretap investigations.
“China has the world’s largest our on-line world operations workforce,” Gen. Haugh warned, “engaged each day in a deliberate marketing campaign to steal our expertise and goal.”
The NSA director urged better public-private sector cooperation to counter the risk — what he referred to as a “whole-of-nation response.”
“It would take actions on the a part of our total nation, authorities, trade, and academia all transferring as one to answer the sweeping method being carried out by PRC cyber actors.”
For extra on Gen. Haugh’s look on the Risk Convention, learn in The Cipher Transient or watch on our YouTube channel. Additionally take a look at The Cipher Transient’s protection of Gen. Haugh’s replace on the Chinese language cyber risk from earlier this month.
Chinese language cyberattacks are the ‘tip of the iceberg’
If Gen. Haugh’s warnings weren’t sobering sufficient, a dialog two months later gave us contemporary purpose to pause.
This one got here on the Winter Summit of our Cyber Initiatives Group in early December, which coated the 12 months’s prime cyber threats, points and alternatives of the 12 months. Right here the headline visitor was Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Safety Company (CISA) Director Jen Easterly, and whereas she provided a overview of the “Salt Storm” breach and different cybersecurity issues, she additionally warned that “Salt Storm” probably represented solely the “tip of the iceberg” in terms of China-based cyberattacks in opposition to U.S. important infrastructure. These assaults, she stated, are aimed not solely on the theft of concepts and knowledge; more and more, Easterly stated, they’re cyber probes meant to sow the seeds of future disruptions within the occasion of a U.S.-China battle.
“This can be a world the place a conflict in Asia may see very actual impacts to the lives of Individuals throughout our nation, with assaults in opposition to pipelines, in opposition to water amenities, in opposition to transportation nodes, in opposition to communications, all to induce societal panic,” Easterly stated.
Given the severity of the risk, Easterly added that she wished these cyberattacks had been given completely different names.
“I want I hadn’t ever heard any of those names, like ‘Volt Storm,’ ‘Salt Storm,’ ‘Midnight Blizzard,’ ‘Tempest Panda’… that basically glorify these villains that frankly need to do huge hurt to the USA of America,” she stated. “And so, I’m on a mission to attempt to rename a few of these unhealthy actors to issues like ‘Weak Weasel’ and ‘Doofus Dingo.’”
Learn extra of the dialog, together with Easterly’s recommendation for her successor, in The Cipher Transient, or watch it on our YouTube channel.
In search of a option to get forward of the week in cyber and tech? Join the Cyber Initiatives Group Sunday publication to rapidly stand up to hurry on the largest cyber and tech headlines and be prepared for the week forward. Enroll right this moment.
One thing worse than a ‘Chilly Warfare’ with China?
We may have crammed this complete put up with the insight-rich conversations from the October Risk Convention, and we come again to it right here for another deep dive with a prime official from the U.S. intelligence neighborhood.
Few prime IC officers perceive China in addition to Michael Collins, Appearing Chair of the Nationwide Intelligence Council, who has spent the higher a part of three a long time engaged on East Asia. In a convention session with Cipher Transient Managing Editor Tom Nagorski, Collins provided a view of China and the U.S.-China relationship that married the knowledge of a scholar with the expertise of a longtime IC chief.
He stated the U.S.-China relationship was not but in “Chilly Warfare” territory, however was higher understood as a “nice energy competitors” or “programs competitors.” Whereas that not-a-Chilly-Warfare-yet evaluation might need made us really feel higher for a second, Collins additionally had this to say: the present conflict with China is “extra extreme, extra advanced, even when not as militarized, as the unique Chilly Warfare,” provided that the U.S. goes up in opposition to a rustic with far better financial energy and worldwide clout than the Soviet Union ever had.
Learn extra from the dialog in The Cipher Transient.
From the NCTC Chief, an “exit interview”
Christine Abizaid was sworn in as Director of the Nationwide Counter-Terrorism Heart (NCTC) in June of 2021, and gave her first public interview as director to The Cipher Transient. Again then, she spoke concerning the altering terrorist threats to America, which she referred to as “ideologically numerous.”
It was solely becoming, then, that three years later, as Abizaid ready for her departure from the NCTC, she met with The Cipher Transient as soon as extra, this time for an unique exit interview.
Abizaid provided a spread of reflections on the job, and on a risk atmosphere that has modified dramatically for the reason that 9/11 assaults – and isn’t any much less advanced.
“It’s under no circumstances like what we handled instantly after 9/11,” Abizaid stated. “It’s very completely different than when ISIS got here onto the scene after having declared a worldwide caliphate. It’s no easier, no much less regarding, and also you need our intelligence companies, our legislation enforcement companies, our border safety and homeland safety companies, to be targeted like a laser on stopping the consequences of terrorism in the USA homeland and globally.”
For all of the challenges – we spoke with Abizaid amid a resurgence of the Islamic State (IS) and a documented rise in jihadist terror impressed by Israel’s conflict in Gaza – she was hopeful that her company and the nationwide safety neighborhood writ massive was in place to handle the risk.
“I hope the typical American doesn’t have to consider the terrorism risk right this moment as a lot as they needed to in earlier a long time, partly as a result of we’ve executed job as the USA authorities throughout successive administrations in conserving that risk at bay,” Abizaid advised us. “The way in which I give it some thought is, let’s not have the general public have to fret about this — let’s make it the job of the counterterrorism enterprise to have to fret about it.”
Learn her interview in The Cipher Transient and take heed to it on The State Secrets and techniques podcast on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
The primary “Spy Promenade”
The Cipher Transient held its inaugural Honors Dinner on April 18 in Washington D.C. – an occasion dubbed “Spy Promenade” by former Congressman Will Hurd, given the vary of honorees and different particular visitors who joined us from the Intelligence Neighborhood. The occasion acknowledged professionals from completely different backgrounds who’ve made vital contributions to the nationwide and international safety dialogue.
Whereas the honorees had been all spectacular — CIA Director William Burns; Oksana Markarova, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.S.; Susan Gordon, former Principal Deputy Director of Nationwide Intelligence on the Workplace of the Director of Nationwide Intelligence; Cipher Transient Senior Nationwide Safety Columnist Walter Pincus; and screenwriter Howard Gordon — we observe right here a gap tackle on the occasion given by Dr. Michael Vickers, who served as Below Secretary of Protection for Intelligence from 2011 to 2015.
Vickers provided a tour of the worldwide panorama of safety dangers – what he described as a harmful world that’s getting extra harmful on a regular basis. “We haven’t confronted a world atmosphere this difficult for the reason that early Chilly Warfare,” Vickers stated, and by the point he’d completed his remarks, it was arduous to argue the purpose. From Russia to China to the “revolution in expertise much more highly effective than the commercial and nuclear revolutions,” Vickers argued the necessity for vigilance. Loads to digest at a black-tie occasion — however the correct tone for an occasion that honored those that have labored to mitigate the dangers and risks.
Learn extra from Vickers’ opening remarks right here, and discover out extra about The Honors Dinner right here. You would possibly want to be part of us on the 2025 version.
Apply now in your seat at The Cipher Transient Honors Dinner, probably the most glamourous spy dinner of the 12 months.
Reside from Taiwan, a former Naval Intelligence Chief
For all the present threats to nationwide and international safety, China’s assertiveness and longer-term ambitions round Taiwan dangle over any conversations involving international threats. In 2024, China held navy workouts close to Taiwan after the Could inauguration of President Lai Ching-te; and in mid-December, Taipei stated Beijing performed its largest maritime operations within the area in virtually three a long time, days after Lai made a Pacific tour that included stops in Guam and Hawaii.
Former Rear Admiral Mike Studeman, who served as Commander of the Workplace of Naval Intelligence (ONI), is aware of China nicely – and the Taiwan difficulty particularly. Earlier this 12 months, Taiwan’s then-Vice President-Elect Hsiao Bi-Khim – who Studeman had briefed, together with former President Tsai Ing-Wen, when he was the Navy’s Indo-Pacom Director for Intelligence – invited the previous Rear Admiral to Taiwan for a sequence of high-level visits. The Cipher Transient caught up with him throughout that journey to debate Taiwan’s defenses and the prospect of battle within the Taiwan Strait.
Among the many takeaways from his conferences was this sobering observe: in terms of a possible Chinese language navy transfer on Taiwan, “the query wasn’t whether or not. The query was when.” Studeman later joined Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, a former CIA director of East Asia operations, to debate the damaging stage of tensions, and the way a battle within the Taiwan Strait may probably be averted.
Learn extra in The Cipher Transient, together with Studeman’s year-end “straight-talk” evaluation of China’s “silent invasion” of the U.S. homeland; and take heed to extra from him in our State Secrets and techniques podcast on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
A view from Kyiv – throughout a 12 months of firsts for Ukraine
Within the third 12 months of Russia’s full-scale conflict in opposition to Ukraine, there have been dramatic developments on many fronts: Russia launched its largest drone assault on Ukraine; Ukrainian forces launched an unprecedented incursion into Russia’s Kursk area; Kyiv received the inexperienced mild to make use of U.S.-made ATACMS and U.Ok. Storm Shadow missiles for long-range strikes into Russia; and maybe most notably, North Korean troops entered the struggle, supporting Russian troops in Kursk. And as 2024 attracts to an in depth, Ukraine and NATO are making ready for President-elect Donald Trump’s return to The White Home, anxious over what precisely will come of his guarantees of a fast finish to the conflict.
The Cipher Transient turned to a broad vary of specialists concerning the conflict in 2024, and we spoke a number of instances with former Ukrainian Protection Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk to get a high-level perspective from Kyiv. His expertise in Ukraine’s protection runs deep; along with his service as minister, Zagorodnyuk was head of the Ministry of Protection’s Reforms Mission Workplace, an advisor to the president of Ukraine for protection issues, and a member of the supervisory council of Ukraine’s Ukroboronprom protection firm.
We spoke with Zagorodnyuk concerning the Kursk incursion — which he referred to as “very vital as a result of the one approach for [Ukraine] to win, regardless of the political definition of victory is, is to do one thing exterior of the field”; and the North Korean troop deployment — which he stated confirmed that “Russia is attempting to develop the conflict.”
Learn extra in The Cipher Transient and watch extra in our program The World Deciphered.
Ukraine’s “unprecedented” innovation
One other main story from Ukraine in 2024 concerned the nation’s exceptional tempo of innovation in its protection trade – innovation that many exterior specialists imagine is making Ukraine a worldwide chief in protection growth.
Former CIA Director Common David Petraeus is aware of a factor or two about this difficulty, and when he joined us in 2024 – on the twentieth Yalta European Technique (YES) convention in Kyiv, at our Risk Convention in October, and on our digital platform – he repeatedly made the purpose: Ukraine has the capability to innovate for conflict wants at an “unprecedented” scale and tempo, far surpassing the modern capability of the U.S.
“When the weapons fall silent right here,” he advised us, “Ukraine goes to be a navy industrial powerhouse with the power to innovate far more quickly than something that we’ve got.”
Earlier within the 12 months, Gen. Petraeus led a Cipher Transient delegation to Kyiv, the place he stated, “There’s no query concerning the continued dedication of the Ukrainians. They’re concerned of their conflict of independence, they usually’re doing every thing they probably can to make sure their continued freedom, their continued safety within the face of this brutal and unprovoked invasion by a neighbor who believes they don’t have a proper to exist.” For the remainder of the world, Gen. Petraeus had a name to motion: “We are able to’t let Ukraine fail. We are able to’t let Russia win.”
Learn extra in The Cipher Transient and watch extra on our YouTube Channel.
Is the Protection Division prepared for an age of disruption?
Implicit in Gen. Petraeus’ evaluation of Ukraine’s modern capability was a critique of the U.S. protection trade – for being much less agile and dynamic. He wasn’t alone in making that time on The Cipher Transient stage this 12 months.
Does the U.S. navy have an innovation downside? Steve Clean, an American entrepreneur and creator of the so-called “lean startup” motion, definitely thinks so. Clean is a deeply revered voice on the earth of organizational administration, significantly in terms of disruption in massive organizations that resist change. In a chat with Cipher Transient CEO Suzanne Kelly on the State Secrets and techniques podcast, Clean stated he believes that for all its sensible leaders and cash and apparent edge in lots of areas, the U.S. navy is susceptible to falling behind main adversaries in terms of change and innovation, particularly on this time of “disaster.”
“In the event you’re not nervous, you’re not paying consideration,” Clean stated. “In the event you exit to the combatant instructions, whether or not you’re in CENTCOM dodging Houthi missiles otherwise you’re in INDO-PACOM worrying concerning the future, it’s fairly clear that there’s a sense of disaster. However the nearer you get to that five-sided constructing, paperwork nonetheless strikes on the similar pace that it usually strikes. And it’s not that there are sensible individuals who don’t perceive that, however the organizations writ massive haven’t declared that it’s not enterprise as traditional.”
Within the dialog about how the Pentagon would possibly greatest deal with this downside, Kelly requested Clean provocative query: What three issues would you do if the subsequent president made you secretary of protection?
The solutions to that query and extra in The Cipher Transient – or take heed to the State Secrets and techniques podcast (on Apple Podcasts or Spotify).
Ethan Masucol contributed to reporting.
Learn extra expert-driven nationwide safety insights, perspective and evaluation in The Cipher Transient.
