A Tremendous Bowl champion has come from the AFC West division for the third time previously 5 seasons. Nevertheless, the champion has been the identical group each time — the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs.
Sportsbooks count on a lot of the identical from Kansas Metropolis this season, setting its win complete at 11.5 wins, with a little bit of juice on the Over.
Moreover, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected to complete second within the division, whereas Denver and Las Vegas are anticipated to be bottom-dwellers.
Will the Chargers, Broncos or Raiders give the Chiefs some semblance of competitors this season, or can we count on Patrick Mahomes and firm to dominate the division once more?
Try our AFC West preview and greatest wager beneath, with present win totals and odds by way of DraftKings:
Broncos: 5.5 wins (+105/-125)
Coach Sean Payton has full autonomy, which was fairly evident when Payton and the Broncos chosen former Oregon standout Bo Nix to switch Russell Wilson beneath middle.
Payton has in contrast Nix to Drew Brees, whom he coached in New Orleans; each are considerably undersized for the place and possess related qualities.
Assuming Nix begins from Day 1, there’ll inevitably be rising pains, particularly since Denver moved Jerry Jeudy to the Cleveland Browns for late-round picks.
The Broncos nonetheless have Courtland Sutton and signed Josh Reynolds, however total the supporting forged isn’t gifted sufficient to make them greater than a mean offense.
Denver’s protection ranked thirty first per PFF final season; it gave up the Twenty seventh-most factors and the Twenty ninth-most yards per sport. The secondary is an atrocity and the Broncos did nearly nothing within the draft and free company to assist.
Chargers: 8.5 wins (-155/+130)
Welcome to the Jim Harbaugh period in Los Angeles.
After successful the nationwide championship at Michigan, Harbaugh opted to leap again to the NFL, the place he has had success, together with taking the San Francisco 49ers to the Tremendous Bowl in 2012; he additionally made three consecutive NFC Championship video games between 2011-14.
Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams are all gone, which may make life a bit of difficult for Justin Herbert. Nonetheless, offensive sort out Joe Alt, a Notre Dame rookie, ought to assist give him extra time within the pocket.
Los Angeles did usher in Gus Edwards and J.Ok. Dobbins, however Dobbins has solely performed in 9 video games because the finish of the 2020 season, so his well being will probably be paramount for the offense.
Protecting Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack can be large for the Chargers’ protection, a unit that considerably underperformed final season however may enhance beneath new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter.
Chiefs: 11.5 wins (-115/-105)
By their current requirements, the Chiefs had been underwhelming within the common season, successful merely 11 video games, earlier than surging within the postseason.
Mockingly, regardless of nonetheless having Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, and Travis Kelce, the Chiefs’ offense struggled at occasions, rating fifteenth in factors scored and twelfth in total offense, per PFF.
Nevertheless, don’t count on the identical complacency and mediocrity in 2024; the Chiefs have Mahomes, Pacheco, Kelce, and Rashee Rice again (pending his suspension). In addition they signed Marquise Brown and drafted huge receiver Xavier Worthy, who ran a 4.21 40-yard sprint on the mix.
Defensively, Kansas Metropolis prioritized DT Chris Jones, a show-stopping inside pressure. In brief, this high-octane offense ought to return to its former methods this season.
Raiders: 6.5 wins (-130/+110)
Regardless of beginning Aidan O’Connell beneath middle for 10 video games, the Raiders had been nonetheless in a position to safe eight wins in 2023. O’Connell and Gardner Minshew will duke it out for QB1 in 2024, however neither participant is certain to repair the obvious points on the place.
Additional, don’t be shocked if Davante Adams is traded in some unspecified time in the future this 12 months. Outdoors of Adams, the huge receiver place is comparatively skinny. Rookie Brock Bowers received’t repair the entire issues within the passing sport, as tight ends scarcely make fast splashes.
Signing Christian Wilkins will hold the protection afloat, forming a pleasant tandem with Maxx Crosby, however the secondary is among the weaker models within the AFC.
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AFC West Greatest Guess
The Chargers have suffered from horrendous teaching for fairly a while. This could change with Harbaugh in 2024. And it definitely helps that the Chargers are projected to have the second-easiest schedule within the NFL.
They improved the offensive line with Alt, and extra time within the pocket for Herbert can solely imply good issues for the group, even when the opposite talent positions are a bit mild now. Take the Over on 8.5 wins.
PICK: Chargers over 8.5 wins (-154, FanDuel)
