Newsom Is Ending a Golden Age of California Progressivism

Gavin Newsom has to take a step again on well being care.
Picture: Mario Tama/Getty Pictures

There’s not a lot query that Gavin Newsom and lots of different California Democrats hoped that their state might function a defiant various to the reactionary bent of the second Trump administration, one which proudly stands up for his or her celebration’s values. However fiscal realities (together with many below the affect of their enemies in Washington) nonetheless matter, and a brand new announcement from Newsom, as reported by the Related Press, illustrates the boundaries of state-based progressivism within the Trump period:

Gov. Gavin Newsom needs California to cease enrolling extra low-income immigrants with out authorized standing in a state-funded well being care program beginning in 2026 and start charging these already enrolled a month-to-month premium the next yr.

The choice is pushed by a higher-than-expected price ticket on this system and financial uncertainty from federal tariff insurance policies, Newsom stated in a Wednesday announcement. The Democratic governor’s transfer highlights Newsom’s wrestle to guard his liberal coverage priorities amid funds challenges in his last years on the job.

California was among the many first states to increase free well being care advantages to all poor adults no matter their immigration standing final yr, an bold plan touted by Newsom to assist the nation’s most populous state to inch nearer to a purpose of common well being care. However the fee for such growth ran $2.7 billion greater than the administration had anticipated.

The regular growth of Medi-Cal, California’s Medicaid program, which is being at finest “paused” proper now, mirrored two completely different however mutually reinforcing progressive values: a sluggish however stead crawl towards common health-care protection within the absence of a nationwide single-payer system, and a priority for the wants of the undocumented immigrants who play so distinguished a task in California’s economic system and society. Particularly, California Democrats have embraced the argument that well being care needs to be a proper, not some form of earned privilege, partially as a result of medical insurance helps maintain total health-care prices down in the long term by selling early detection and remedy of sicknesses whereas avoiding costly emergency-room care. As a result of federal Medicaid {dollars} can’t be used to offer companies for undocumented immigrants, California (like six different states that cowl important numbers of adults, and 13 others who cowl youngsters) has used state {dollars} to pay for them.

California Democrats had been ready to broaden Medi-Cal because of the legislative supermajorities they’ve loved since 2018, which can be when Newsom turned governor. However the newest growth has proved to be fiscally unsustainable as statewide funds shortfalls loom. Newsom has been fast to attribute the newest funds woes to revenues losses brought on by Trump’s tariff insurance policies. However the broader downside is that, not like the federal authorities, California should steadiness its funds, despite the fact that most of the elements influencing spending and revenues are past its management. And the issue is more likely to worsen because the Trump administration and its congressional allies shift prices to the states, a significant a part of their technique for decreasing federal spending (to pay for high-end federal tax cuts).

There’s a particular rising federal coverage that in all probability influenced Newsom’s newest step: Congressional Republicans are very more likely to undertake a punitive discount in Medicaid matching funds for states which might be utilizing their very own cash to cowl undocumented immigrants. The main points are nonetheless below improvement, however the provision might hit California fairly laborious.

Numbers apart, this episode represents a possible turning level in California’s progressive political developments, reflecting Trump’s better-than-expected exhibiting within the Golden State in 2024 together with the passage of a poll initiative growing felony penalties for drug and theft offenses and the rejection of a rise within the state’s minimal wage. There’s even some optimistic speak amongst California Republicans about breaking their lengthy dropping streak (relationship again to 2006) in statewide elections subsequent yr (which is fairly unlikely given the excessive odds of an anti-Trump midterm backlash).

It’s additionally doable that the ever-ambitious Newsom doesn’t thoughts calibrating his personal ideological picture towards the perceived middle in his last days as governor (he’s term-limited subsequent yr). He and different California Democrats can solely hope that financial developments and what occurs in Washington give them a selection within the matter.