There was loads of buzz in regards to the Muslim vote in 2024.
Photograph: Adam James Dewey/Anadolu/Getty Pictures
There was loads of buzz through the presidential marketing campaign in regards to the chance that Joe Biden’s unflinching help for Israel in its battle with Gaza would possibly value him and different Democrats dearly amongst Arab and Muslim voters. Because it occurs, Biden wasn’t on the poll, however Kamala Harris didn’t precisely distance herself from the administration’s international coverage. Now there may be new knowledge exhibiting that she misplaced a good portion of Muslim voters to Donald Trump — on the precise time the president is presiding over the identical type of destruction in Gaza that harmed his predecessor politically.
The Cooperative Election Research lately made out there its knowledge for the 2024 election, and America’s main demographer of political traits by non secular affiliation, Ryan Burge of Japanese Illinois College, has taken a contemporary look on the Muslim vote. Harris held on to 61 p.c of the Muslim vote and Trump received 33 p.c, a pointy departure from the 91 p.c to 9 p.c Biden win amongst these voters in 2020, in response to CES knowledge. (Solely 6 p.c of Muslims voted for third-party candidates like Jill Stein.) Trump did higher than Republicans have achieved since he scandalized Muslims along with his authentic travel-ban proposal in 2015.
To be clear, Burge sees actual Trump features amongst Muslims in 2024 — not only a barely greater share of a vote, lowered by anger over the alternatives. Certainly, CES suggests Muslim turnout went up sharply in 2024. However the different pattern he finds is attention-grabbing: The Trump surge in 2024 was considerably greater amongst voters who attend mosques weekly, which can counsel that tradition points may need been an element alongside unhappiness with Biden-Harris help for Israel.
It appears seemingly that Trump’s doubled-down place on Gaza and his shut relationship with Israeli chief Benjamin Netanyahu will come throughout as a betrayal of his new Muslim voters now that he’s extra intently recognized with a battle that many, maybe most, Muslim Individuals view as felony and even genocidal — to say nothing of Trump’s renewed hostility to immigrants.
However Burge does assume Muslims are slowly trending towards the GOP, very like different beforehand pro-Democratic voting teams:
Not less than three quarters of Muslims aligned with the Democrats in 2008, 2012, and 2016. However that shifted in an actual and significant approach in each 2020 and 2024. When Trump ran in opposition to Biden, the share of Muslims who stated that they have been Republicans rose to twenty% — up 8 factors since 2016. Then, that very same factor occurred once more. 27% of Muslims have been Republicans in 2024 and simply half have been Democrats.
When evaluating these outcomes to 2008, the Democrats have misplaced thirty factors amongst Muslims whereas the GOP has picked almost 20 factors. The share of Muslims who’re impartial greater than doubled to 22%.
For the time being, essentially the most distinguished Muslim American politicians are nearly all outspokenly progressive Democrats: congresswomen Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan in addition to New York Metropolis Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani. If there may be certainly a gradual pattern amongst this nation’s Muslims towards the GOP, it ought to in some unspecified time in the future begin exhibiting up downballot. Or maybe it can transform a Biden- or Trump-shaped mirage.
