On December 30, 2025, Moscow claimed a Ukrainian drone assault focused Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence. Russian Overseas Minister Sergei Lavrov threatened his nation’s army would launch “retaliatory strikes” and mentioned Moscow’s “negotiating place can be revised” in ongoing talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the claimed drone assault as “a whole fabrication”, and sources say the CIA assessed that Ukraine was not focusing on the Russian chief’s residence within the assault.
President Trump mentioned in December that the U.S. was “very shut” to a deal. So, what’s occurring?
All through the most recent push for peace, Russia appears to conveniently reset the clock, demanding additional talks because it continues its bombardments and assaults throughout Ukraine.
“This Russian strike sends a particularly clear sign about Russia’s priorities,” Zelensky mentioned in a submit on X referring to a strike on December 23 that killed three individuals and injured 12. Zeleneky condemned the assault “forward of Christmas, when individuals merely wish to be with their households, at house, and secure.”
That strike got here simply days after Putin informed Russian protection ministry officers that Moscow will persist in its mission to “liberate its historic lands” and obtain its struggle objectives “unconditionally” — by negotiations for an settlement in Moscow’s favor, or by way of continued struggle.
The continued Russian assaults and Putin’s bellicose language underscore a sample that has outlined Russia’s place on “peace” all through its full-scale invasion of Ukraine: not budging from maximalist calls for, blaming Kyiv for the dearth of progress, and leveraging Western fears of escalation to World Warfare Three.
The hardline from Putin comes as Ukraine has provided important concessions, together with Ukraine dropping NATO membership ambitions, for no less than the time being, in addition to a possible withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the east and the creation of a demilitarized “free financial zone.” The most recent reviews say Russia nonetheless desires extra, together with extra stringent restrictions on the dimension of Ukraine’s army.
“The Ukrainians have been saying for over a 12 months that they’re prepared to return to an settlement. They’re able to be reasonable and compromise,” Glenn Corn, a former senior CIA Officer informed The Cipher Transient. “It’s the Russians that aren’t doing that. It’s the Russians that proceed to push maximalist calls for and that proceed to scuttle the peace course of — not the Ukrainians.”
By the eyes of seasoned intelligence professionals who’ve studied Putin’s actions for many years, the continued assaults regardless of peace talks are hardly shocking. “Putin has by no means been honest a few negotiated answer to his ‘Particular Army Operation,’” mentioned Rob Dannenberg, former Chief of CIA’s Central Eurasia Division.
Russia can also be persevering with offensive pushes on a number of fronts, together with within the areas it claimed to annex – Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk, the place the embattled strategic metropolis of Pokrovsk is – in addition to within the northern Kharkiv area. Consultants warn Putin’s ambitions go far past.
“We have Putin on the opposite facet of it and the fact is he has not taken one single step in direction of a brief ceasefire or a peace deal in any respect,” Basic Jack Keane (Ret.), who served as Vice Chief of Workers of the U.S. Military and is a trusted advisor to President Donald Trump, informed Fox Information. “The place he’s, he nonetheless believes that ultimately he’ll break the desire and resolve of the USA and the Europeans and the Zelensky authorities and he’ll ultimately have his approach right here,” Keane mentioned, including that Putin’s final struggle aim is to “topple the federal government of Ukraine and develop into Japanese Europe.”
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A Examined Playbook
Russia has lengthy used the pretense of openness to negotiations as a instrument to deceive, delay, and fracture Western help for these Moscow is focusing on. The sample was seen in Georgia in 2008 and once more in Crimea in 2014, when Moscow signaled willingness to speak even because it consolidated army positive aspects on the bottom, shopping for time and weakening Western responses.
“I at all times use the instance of Syria through the Civil Warfare after they [Russian forces] had been killing members of the Syrian opposition whereas they had been consuming wine and low with American and European interlocutors in Europe, claiming that they had been looking for an settlement,” Corn informed The Cipher Transient.
Certainly, behind any Russian assertion of openness to engagement and dialogue, Putin has continued to claim that Ukraine is a part of Russia, that the federal government of Zelensky is illegitimate, and that Russian forces can obtain victory on the battlefield to justify his stonewalling — regardless of mounting prices for Russia and restricted territorial positive aspects.
“Putin’s technique has been constant: advance false narratives; undertake a non-negotiable maximalist place and make ever-increasing calls for for concessions; take deliberate actions to erode U.S., Ukrainian, and NATO resolve and perceived choices; make use of implicit and specific threats and intimidation; and supply false selections,” former CIA Senior Government Dave Pitts informed The Cipher Transient.
“Taken collectively, these characterize Russian ‘reflexive management’—a subset of cognitive warfare and a method designed to steer adversaries to voluntarily undertake outcomes favorable to Russia,” Pitts informed us. “Within the face of unreasonable sovereignty and territorial calls for positioned on Ukraine and none positioned on Russia, an emboldened and assured Putin will now possible demand much more.”
A Hesitant West
How did we get right here? Some consultants say a long-running sample of Western hesitation in maintaining Russia in verify has emboldened Moscow. It’s not laborious to do not forget that at first of the full-scale invasion, Western nations had been gradual to supply full army help to Ukraine, involved a few potential wider escalation.
Retired Basic Philip Breedlove, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, informed The Cipher Transient, “We’ve got taken valuable little motion to cease the struggle in Ukraine and we nonetheless discover ourselves saying, ‘We’re not going to do this as a result of we have to provide peace an opportunity and we do not wish to escalate the issue.’ And that components is just not working now and has not labored for 11 years.”
“We’ve got nearly enabled the Russian struggle on Ukraine by our lack of motion in a extra extreme approach. Many people from army backgrounds say that we’ve constructed sanctuary for Russia. From that sanctuary, we enable them to assault Ukraine.”
Consultants warn that whereas the aim needs to be, as President Donald Trump has mentioned, “to cease the killing,” awarding concessions to a Kremlin that has but to drop its maximalist struggle goals is just not the answer.
“The Trump Administration’s want to finish the violence in Ukraine is commendable, however not on the worth of setting the stage for the subsequent struggle by giving victory to the aggressor,” Dannenberg informed The Cipher Transient.
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The Street Forward
With peace talks ongoing, it’s proving troublesome to give you a deal that doesn’t pressure Ukraine to provide an excessive amount of whereas making certain the proposal doesn’t push Russia to reject the deal outright.
However past the negotiating desk, consultants say there are methods to strain Putin to peace.
Ukraine is just not ready, persevering with strikes on Russian power infrastructure to curb power export revenues that fund Moscow’s struggle machine, and bringing the price of the struggle again to strange Russians.
For the U.S. and Europe, main sanctions on Russia – together with new measures towards Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil – are already in place and reportedly beginning to take their toll, however consultants say stronger enforcement is required to make them really chew.
Sustaining army help to Ukraine can also be important. In mid-December, Congress handed a protection invoice that authorizes $800 million for Ukraine – $400 million in every of the subsequent two years – as a part of the Ukraine Safety Help Initiative, which pays U.S. corporations to provide weapons for Ukraine’s army. President Trump signed the measure into legislation on December 18. In the meantime, whereas Europeans did not agree to make use of frozen Russian belongings to again a mortgage for Ukraine, the EU agreed to a 90 billion euro mortgage over the subsequent two years, backed by the bloc’s finances.
“The Trump Administration ought to reveal its displeasure at Russia’s clear disregard for any so-called peace course of by absolutely imposing all current sanctions, offering Ukraine with long-range weapons, and declaring that peace negotiations are suspended till Russia demonstrates it’s critical about these negotiations,” Basic Ben Hodges, former Commanding Basic of U.S. Military Europe, informed The Cipher Transient. “In any other case, the President’s efforts and people of his negotiators are clearly a waste of time and headed nowhere.”
European nations have additionally fortified post-war pledges to Ukraine. Britain and France have dedicated to sending troops to a peacekeeping mission — if a peace deal is reached. Consultants U.S. intelligence, command and management, and logistics help is required to provide any European effort credibility.
The impression can be felt far past Ukraine, and lengthy after the weapons there go silent.
“For the USA, the most effective final result will come from taking the longer, more durable highway that denies any reward for Russia’s unlawful invasion, forces Putin to make affordable concessions, and sustains the long-term sovereignty and independence of Ukraine,” Pitts mentioned. “That longer, more durable highway additionally results in stronger U.S. nationwide safety.
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