OPINION — As consultants studiously debate what the most recent Israel-Iran preventing will result in, together with a potential Iranian collapse, one enduring however much less understood actuality goes largely untreated: Iranians and People are extra alike than they’re totally different, and that likeness holds hope for a friendlier future. A brand new Iranian revolution would deliver important uncertainty and threat. However it might additionally deliver to the fore Iranian beliefs that, in some ways, are additionally very American.
A Palpable Likeness
A number of years in the past, whereas having fun with a relaxed dinner with a senior Iraqi officer, he proceeded to lecture me and some different People on why he thought that America and Iran have been destined to come back collectively. He delivered a monologue concerning the similarities between the American and Iranian folks, which I initially doubted however subsequently vetted with quite a few Iran consultants who largely agreed. His premise, which I now consider to be largely correct, boiled down to a few commonalities between People and Iranians: we’re imbued with a revolutionary spirit and nationwide pleasure, we’re unyielding entrepreneurs, and we’re bureaucratic in our official decisionmaking, generally to a fault.
- Revolutionary Spirit – People love their revolution. We have fun it repeatedly, and we beckon it in nearly each nationwide speech and theme. I don’t need to show this to the Western reader as a result of it’s ever-present. Nonetheless, polling constantly exhibits America as among the many most, if not essentially the most, “patriotic,” and our revolutionary zeal is at its middle. For Iranians, their id has been centered on revolution since 1979. That connection to the revolution has diminished, if not depleted, however the spirit of revolution as a great, even for these against the present regime, is foundational. My dinner visitor made this level clear: it’s not the 1979 revolution that has endured, however the underdog perspective that perseveres, inspiring Iranians to outline their very own future — a drive that makes Iranians and People so alike.
- Unyielding Entrepreneurship – America is the core of entrepreneurship on the planet. Efforts to rank such traits record the US as second or third, and the US is second solely to China in patents; nevertheless, the US has led world innovation for the final century. As for Iran, the nation constantly punches above its weight in such classes. Certainly, Iranians, like People, take pleasure of their progressive prowess. Iran repeatedly ranks among the many prime performers for innovation within the Close to East, and it outpaces the overwhelming majority of its competitors as a middle-income nation. Consultants on Iran are eager to look at that, absent Western sanctions, Iran has the potential to develop into a know-how powerhouse. Certainly, the very motive Iran is below sanctions, its nuclear ambitions and development, is demonstrable of its technological know-how.
- Bureaucratic Decisionmaking – Though the shared proclivity for making official selections in a bureaucratic trend could not seem essentially the most compelling class on the floor, it demonstrates a shared, ingrained respect for rigor and order. For all our revolutionary zeal, sarcastically, that zeal falls by the wayside in our method to governing, which additionally has a lengthy custom in Iran. We seem totally different on the floor; the US is democratic, and Iran is theocratic, creating important philosophical variations. Nevertheless, each are bureaucratic in follow and construction. My dinner visitor was adamant on this level, noting that, as an Iraqi caught between two rivals, he repeatedly endured our entrenched structural similarities.
An AI-generated comparability of Iranian and American authorities buildings, albeit simplistic, highlights the regimented forms that, at finest, characterizes each international locations’ cautious and thoughtful decisionmaking and, at worst, results in sloth. (Writer-prompted AI-generated graphic)
Commonalities Might Turn into Bridges
These similarities are extra than simply quaint observations; they’re core traits that encourage a nervous hope that our two international locations will come collectively. A major Israeli goal is regime change, the fallout of which may very well be damaging and violent. If regime change have been within the offing, Washington would do properly to grasp and anticipate how the US-Iranian similarities might rapidly develop into affinities influencing any path ahead. On this surroundings, Iranian outreach, diaspora stress, and US ally help would emerge as vital vectors for US motion.
- Iranian Outreach – A brand new revolution in Tehran would nearly definitely spur better outreach towards Washington. This will appear counterintuitive, provided that Iranians have held unfavorable views of the US for years, however our similarities may function a counterforce. Certainly, even amid Iranian disdain for People, they categorical a sturdy want to normalize relations and for democracy. Moreover, Washington’s obvious effort to dissuade Israel from its army offensive could place the USA as a extra approachable adversary. Washington would nearly definitely be located for some fast wins with the youth who can be on the middle of any new motion. To not be flippant, however tender energy gestures, reminiscent of facilitating a live performance by the regionally common Lionel Richie, are the kind of normalization gestures that Washington ought to contemplate.
- Diaspora Stress – The Iranian diaspora in the USA can be a supply of data and stress in Washington amid a brand new Iranian revolution. I’ve retold my dinner story to members of the diaspora, and they’re essentially the most fervent that it’s right; on one event, it introduced an Iranian-born American to tears as she insisted on its accuracy. The US is dwelling to the biggest Iranian inhabitants on the planet after Iran itself; the census places the numbers between 400,000 and 570,000, relying on ethnic combine. Additional, that diaspora is politically engaged and knowledgeable. Washington would do properly to measure the diaspora recommendation; on the one hand, they’ve the perfect pursuits of Iran in thoughts and are prone to return and maintain posts of affect; however—and as we realized in the course of the US invasion of Iraq—diaspora sources can lead with the hearts, understandably, and so counting on a number of sources of data in decisionmaking can be all of the extra vital.
- Ally Help – Like my Iraqi acquaintance, American allies are prone to want and push for a US-Iran rapprochement within the face of a brand new Iranian revolution. Some allies are well-connected and extra revered in Tehran and will function a springboard for Washington. Additional, Iranian needs to normalize relations are much less relevant to Israel, leaving Washington to play a cleanup function if it needs a renewed Iran to emerge as comparatively pleasant. The UK, which maintains an embassy in Tehran and seems wanting to show its loyalty to the US, would seemingly be fast to supply help. France additionally has a diplomatic presence and possibly would step as much as encourage stability. The ever-ambitious Turkey, dwelling to a big diaspora inhabitants and a powerful Muslim affinity—Iran’s theocratic standing will make faith one thing to navigate—can be a vital ally within the trigger. Canada, which helped the US safely depart Tehran after its final revolution, has lately skilled rigidity with Iran, however it hosts the second-largest diaspora inhabitants after the US and can be a logical possibility for trilateral or multilateral engagement.
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