OPINION — Because the starting of the warfare in Ukraine, I’ve discovered the acquainted rhetoric supporting Ukraine’s proper to self-defense in opposition to Russian aggression harking back to the discourse that adopted America’s engagement in Afghanistan. From the outset, I frightened that Ukraine may expertise the identical trajectory: beneficiant help early on, adopted by political fatigue and eventual “abandonment.” The sample of improvement of dependency—the place the supported authorities is unable to maintain itself with out steady help—could be deeply damaging and depart a nation susceptible.
Regrettably, as an alternative of using America’s affect to result in an early diplomatic decision to the Ukraine battle, President Joe Biden escalated army help, contributing to a protracted and more and more complicated warfare. Ukraine has since grow to be closely reliant on U.S. monetary help, weapons, and intelligence. But this help has usually appeared unstable, sometimes threatened by inner U.S. politics. Notably, President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled a willingness to halt help, a place that intensified following political tensions between his administration and President Volodymyr Zelensky. This rising reliance locations Kyiv in a susceptible place—strikingly just like the scenario Kabul confronted in the course of the U.S.-Taliban negotiations below President Trump’s first time period. The U.S. held huge leverage in each conflicts and thus bore a big duty for his or her outcomes. As somebody who was concerned within the Afghanistan peace course of and follows Ukraine peace efforts carefully, I see a troubling resemblance between Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad’s dealings with the Taliban, and the best way American politics are actually shaping Ukraine’s destiny.
President Trump has expressed robust curiosity in resolving the warfare in Ukraine and has forged himself as a “President of Peace.” Because the chief of probably the most highly effective nation on this planet, he does possess the flexibility to affect the warfare’s trajectory. Nevertheless, the crucial query stays: what sort of peace is being pursued? Will it mirror the end result in Afghanistan, the place the U.S. successfully handed over energy to the very group answerable for the 9/11 assaults, sidelining its allies and undermining their legitimacy? The U.S. should proceed with authority—not one other “Doha-style” deal which might ship harmful indicators globally, about America’s reliability as a peace maker, negotiator and at last associate.
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Parallels in Negotiation Dynamics:
There are a number of notable parallels between the U.S. strategy to the Afghanistan peace course of and its present involvement within the Ukraine battle. Whereas the contexts differ, the patterns in negotiation ways, therapy of allies, and use of leverage reveal placing similarities. These shared dynamics provide vital classes—classes that, if ignored, may result in repeated strategic failures. Three key parallels stand out:
1. Russia’s Insistence with the U.S.-Led Talks:
President Putin’s refusal to have interaction instantly with President Zelensky in Istanbul, insisting as an alternative on first reaching an understanding with the U.S., mirrors the Taliban’s place in the course of the Doha talks. The Taliban demanded negotiations completely with the USA earlier than any engagement with the Afghan authorities. This tactic successfully marginalized the nationwide authorities, granting the Taliban better legitimacy. In Ukraine’s case, ought to Russia safe a cope with Washington that renders the U.S. impartial or much less engaged, it will probably tilt the battlefield dynamics in Moscow’s favor. We witnessed an identical shift in Afghanistan, the place repeated Afghan objections to their exclusion have been dismissed as obstructionist to the peace talks. I recall a number of conferences on the presidential palace in Kabul, the place Ambassador Khalilzad emphasised that “the U.S. doesn’t want anybody’s permission to barter with the Taliban or to withdraw its troops.” This narrative turned a rhetorical weapon to close down legitimate issues about an orderly and inclusive peace course of.
2. Public Discrediting of Allies:
One other shared sample is the notion of “undermining allies.” In Afghanistan, Ambassador Khalilzad publicly criticized the Afghan authorities—particularly President Ashraf Ghani—for being an impediment to peace, somewhat than acknowledging official issues. Ghani’s polarizing management type made him a straightforward goal, permitting Khalilzad’s narrative to realize traction amongst Afghan elites and the general public. In Ukraine, the tone of public discourse from U.S. officers, together with the President, has at instances appeared dismissive or crucial of the Ukrainian authorities. This public framing could be damaging. It echoes the stress confronted by the Afghan authorities to make main concessions—corresponding to the discharge of 5,000 Taliban prisoners—regardless of warnings from Afghan management. In each circumstances, U.S. rhetoric has eroded the morale of associate forces and given adversaries the higher hand in psychological warfare. In Afghanistan, this contributed on to the collapse of state buildings and army cohesion. Language issues. Classes from Afghanistan ought to inform a extra cautious, respectful U.S. posture in Ukraine.
3. Conditioning Help and Misusing Leverage:
Threats to droop help for Ukraine, don’t advance peace. They embolden adversaries and sow uncertainty. American leverage must be used to finish violence, not threat enabling it. Any withdrawal of help must be tied to the profitable cessation of hostilities and institution of a viable simply peace. In any other case, efforts at diplomacy threat failing, and President Trump’s envisioned “peace legacy” might as an alternative be remembered as a geopolitical failure.
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Suggestions:
Primarily based on the teachings realized from Afghanistan, the next suggestion is essential for avoiding related pitfalls in Ukraine:
Firstly, the U.S. should keep away from the crucial mistake made in the course of the Afghanistan peace course of—negotiating instantly with adversaries whereas sidelining official nationwide governments. Within the case of Afghanistan, excluding the Afghan authorities and the Afghan individuals from early levels of the U.S.-Taliban talks severely weakened its authority, emboldened the Taliban, and finally led to the collapse of the Afghan state. This strategy not solely demoralized U.S. allies but additionally delegitimized them within the eyes of their very own individuals and the worldwide neighborhood. In Ukraine, the USA should undertake a distinct course. Any peace initiative should place the Ukrainian authorities and the individuals of Ukraine on the middle of negotiations—not as a passive recipient of choices made elsewhere, however as an energetic, equal stakeholder. Peace achieved with out the consent and management of each side of the battle—the Ukrainian individuals and its adversaries—will likely be fragile, not sustainable, and short-lived.
Secondly, public messaging should replicate respect and unity. Criticizing allies in public, whereas signaling tolerance or engagement with aggressors behind closed doorways, undermines belief, morale, and credibility. Strategic ambiguity could be exploited by adversaries to sow discord, because it was by the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Ukraine deserves a peace course of that’s inclusive, dignified, and respectful of its sovereignty. The world can’t afford a repeat of the Kabul situation—the place allies have been sidelined, and adversaries gaining upper-hand. The U.S. management, as at all times, have to be principled, constant, and anchored in classes realized from previous missteps. If managed correctly, the peace course of in Ukraine may certainly mark a transformative legacy for American diplomacy, not solely because the associate to depend on however as a negotiator with making the suitable deal.
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