OPINION — The worldwide terrorism panorama in 2026 — the 25th anniversary yr of the 9/11 terrorism assaults — is extra unsure, hybridized, and flamable than at any level since 9/11. Framing a sound U.S. counterterrorism technique — particularly within the second yr of a Trump administration — would require greater than remoted strikes in opposition to ISIS in Nigeria, punitive counterterrorism operations in Syria, or a more durable rhetorical posture.
A Trump administration counterterrorism technique would require legitimacy: the home, worldwide, and authorized credibility that leverages a wide-range of counterterrorism instruments, whereas engendering worldwide counterterrorism cooperation. With out legitimacy, even tactically profitable counterterrorism operations danger turning into illusory, politicized, and finally self-defeating.
The terrorist menace panorama
Extremist violence not conforms to wash ideological strains. Terrorist goals and drivers are muddled in methods which are arduous to know — however evolving. There’s little ideological purity with these radicalizing in at present’s extremist milieu.
On the similar time, state-directed intelligence officers more and more behave like terrorists. Russian intelligence-linked sabotage plots blur the road between terrorism and hybrid warfare. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers present hands-on coaching to Lebanese Hizballah commanders. Addressing these sorts of dangers requires legitimacy, too, particularly amongst allies whose intelligence cooperation, authorized authorities, and public assist are indispensable.
Nowhere is that this menace image extra tenuous than within the Center East. Hamas’s October 7, 2023, assaults triggered a profound rebalancing of energy within the area. But, Syria stays unfinished enterprise. Energy vacuums there invite international jihadists, threaten Israel’s border communities, and create future alternatives for Iranian affect to rebound.
A modest however persistent U.S. presence in Syria with a pleasant Ahmed al-Sharaa-led authorities stays a strategic hedge in opposition to an Islamic State resurgence, and is a robust sign of U.S. dedication that helps maintain accomplice confidence. The U.S. counterterrorism presence and alignment with al-Sharaa is just not with out its dangers, although: in December, three Individuals have been killed by a lone ISIS gunman in central Syria. The nation is, and can proceed to be, stricken by sectarianism and terrorism, which signifies that restoring management over a deeply fractured Syria stays fraught.
Taken collectively, the present transnational terrorism menace panorama is risky and tough to foretell, a problem compounded by useful resource constraints. In such an setting, legitimacy turns into a pressure multiplier. A perception that America is a ‘pressure for good’, credible messaging, and confidence that U.S. authorities motion is perceived as simply, can go a great distance.
This isn’t an summary concern. Terrorism at present thrives in contested data environments, polarized societies, and fragile states. Briefly, transnational jihadist networks now coexist with home violent extremists, and on-line radicalization ecosystems that blur the road between terrorism, insurgency, and hybrid warfare. Terrorist propaganda continues to resonate with people within the West, particularly youthful generations who radicalize on-line. On this setting, legitimacy is not a secondary good thing about sound technique—it’s a core guideline.
The Trump administration’s counterterrorism strategy
We’re searching for extra readability on the trajectory of Trump 2.0 counterterrorism efforts. It’s nonetheless, untimely to contemplate a method that has but to be formally articulated, as many within the counterterrorism group eagerly await its launch. Historical past presents a helpful reminder. The primary Trump administration didn’t publish its Nationwide Technique for Counterterrorism till its second yr. When it appeared in 2018, critics and supporters alike acknowledged that it mirrored skilled judgment moderately than ideological extra. That doc acknowledged terrorism’s evolution and known as for strengthening counterterrorism partnerships throughout the U.S. authorities, however overseas as properly, with a variety of longstanding allies.
What gave that technique sturdiness was its legitimacy. Authorities have been grounded in legislation, menace assessments have been evidence-based, insurance policies have been stress-tested for defective assumptions, and international partnerships have been handled as strategic belongings moderately than transactional relationships.
When the Biden administration publicly launched a set of redacted guidelines secretly issued by President Trump in 2017 for counterterrorism operations — comparable to “direct motion” strikes and particular operations raids outdoors typical battle zones — these tips explicitly acknowledged the ability of legitimacy. Counterterrorism succeeds when allies belief the U.S., and the American public believes pressure is used proportionately and lawfully.
That legacy of belief issues now greater than ever, given alerts {that a} second Trump administration might overcorrect on its counterterrorism priorities by redirecting and focusing assets on far-left extremist teams such because the Turtle Island Liberation Entrance (TILF) or Antifa, whereas downplaying far-right extremism—or being distracted from the extra harmful terrorism threats from ISIS and different violent jihadists. Because the world lately witnessed through the holidays, from Bondi Seaside to Syria, ISIS stays a menace. Far-Left terrorism within the U.S. is on the rise, however far-right terrorism accounts for better lethality than did the left. And nonetheless, after 25 years, it’s ISIS and al-Qa’ida that stay probably the most persistent and enduring transnational terrorism menace in opposition to U.S pursuits.
The Trump Nationwide Safety Technique
It’s regarding that the lately printed Nationwide Safety Technique (NSS) solely tepidly addresses transnational terrorism, however notably hyperlinks terrorism with cross-border threats and hemispheric cooperation in opposition to issues like “narco-terrorists,” blurring the standard separation between transnational organized crime and terrorism.
Nonetheless, the Trump administration’s emphasis on drug cartels is justifiable, if it does not detract from broader counterterrorism goals, such because the ISIS or hybridizing terrorist threats that proceed to emerge. Commentators declare, nevertheless, that the Trump administration is already dropping sight of the ISIS and al-Qa’ida threats, although settling that debate right here is quixotic at finest — solely time will inform.
In addition to jihadi threats, the U.S. doesn’t want the unintended penalties and dangers of triggering a cycle of cartel retaliation – or upsetting better far-left violence – down-the-line within the U.S. homeland.
Contrastingly, the 2017 Nationwide Safety Technique noticed radical Islamist terrorism as one of many precedence transnational threats that would undermine U.S. safety and stability. The technique highlighted teams comparable to ISIS and al-Qa’ida as persevering with risks, stressing that terrorists had taken management of components of the Center East and remained a menace globally.
The Cipher Temporary brings expert-level context to nationwide and international safety tales. It’s by no means been extra vital to know what’s occurring on the earth. Improve your entry to unique content material by turning into a subscriber.
Addressing transnational terrorism through the first Trump administration required self-discipline and steadiness amid predictable frictions on the Nationwide Safety Council (NSC) amongst policymakers who needed a extra speedy shift towards different priorities, comparable to nice energy competitors. Nonetheless, terrorist labeling and designations, strategic messaging, and useful resource allocation for counterterrorism have been grounded in proof moderately than politics.
So, overhyping some threats whereas minimizing others undermines legitimacy, invitations backlash, and weakens the very ethical authority wanted to operationalize a cogent, considerate nationwide safety technique. It additionally erodes belief between the federal government and the general public and leads residents to second-guess whether or not they’re being advised the reality or being led astray. The 2017 NSS carried weight exactly as a result of it was grounded in intelligence, not politics. Furthermore, the NSS helped body the counterterrorism technique that adopted and proved extremely efficient in retaining Individuals secure.
Drawing classes from the 2018 Nationwide Technique for Counterterrorism
The 2018 Nationwide Technique for Counterterrorism (NSCT) stays a helpful basis for the second Trump administration—not as a result of the world is unchanged, however as a result of it embraced steadiness. The technique emphasised international partnerships, non-military instruments, and focused direct motion when crucial. It acknowledged a central legitimacy precept: america can not and shouldn’t battle each terrorist all over the place with American troops when succesful counterterrorism companions can achieve this in their very own backyards, with native consent, and a extra granular understanding of the grievances that inspire these terrorist teams and their supporters.
And nonetheless, U.S. counterterrorism stress by way of direct motion stays a crucial software to disrupt terrorism planning. Evidently the second Trump Administration is following the playbook of the primary Trump administration by way of aggressive counterterrorism kinetic strikes in locations like Somalia, Yemen, and Iraq.
President Trump rescinded Biden-era limits on counterterrorism drone strikes, permitting the sort of versatile operational framework used for counterterrorism all through the President’s first time period. To this point, within the aggressive counter-narcotic marketing campaign in worldwide waters off Venezuela, the standoff U.S. strikes resemble counterterrorism operations in Yemen and Somalia through the first Trump administration. Operationally, direct motion stays an indispensable counterterrorism software for disrupting terror teams abroad, and extra U.S. direct motion will possible be crucial in West Africa and the Sahel to maintain jihadist teams working there off steadiness, forcing them to dedicate extra time and assets to operational safety.
However stress with out legitimacy is counterproductive. What works in opposition to jihadist networks doesn’t essentially translate cleanly to drug cartels or transnational felony gangs. So, policymakers have to be circumspect that increasing the scope of counterterrorism authorities and terrorist designations to canvas drug cartels, dangers the unintended penalties of triggering destabilizing cycles of violence sooner or later, and straining extra conventional counterterrorism assets.
Coming full circle, in mild of the U.S. seize of Nicolás Maduro for narcoterrorism-related offenses, the concept of legitimacy will likely be fiercely debated within the days and weeks forward. If the Trump Nationwide Safety Technique is the roadmap for specializing in narcoterrorism within the Western Hemisphere, then the necessity for publishing a clarifying and rational U.S. counterterrorism technique for the remainder of the world takes on even better sense of urgency.
Pushing a boulder uphill
Drawing on previous counterterrorism classes to discover a complete technique—from the Bush administration’s wartime footing, by way of 8 years of Obama counterterrorism work, to President Trump’s “battle on terror” — is a Sisyphean activity. However, within the wake of over 20 years of relentless abroad counterterrorism work, a number of concepts have come into sharper focus:
After greater than 20 years of counterterrorism, loosening the Gordian knot of recent terrorism requires steadiness, far better readability, and constant, predictable nationwide management.
Above all, counterterrorism technique requires legitimacy. With out it, counterterrorism turns into reactive and politicized. With it, a Trump 2.0 counterterrorism technique can nonetheless be agency, versatile, and credible in a much more harmful world.
The Cipher Temporary is dedicated to publishing a variety of views on nationwide safety points submitted by deeply skilled nationwide safety professionals. Opinions expressed are these of the creator and don’t symbolize the views or opinions of The Cipher Temporary.
Have a perspective to share primarily based in your expertise within the nationwide safety discipline? Ship it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.
Learn extra expert-driven nationwide safety insights, perspective and evaluation in The Cipher Temporary, as a result of nationwide safety is everybody’s enterprise.
