However Myanmar’s civil warfare isn’t just a humanitarian disaster—it’s a geopolitical fault line. The protracted battle has displaced over 2.6 million individuals, fueled transnational arms and drug networks, and drawn in exterior powers like China and Russia—but it stays largely absent from worldwide coverage debates.
Analysts warn that continued neglect might destabilize Southeast Asia for years to come back, probably empowering malign actors throughout the area.
“The USA has lengthy had an curiosity in peace, stability and growth in Asia and stopping the rise of a regional hegemon. The continuing battle in Burma challenges all of those pursuits,” Derek Mitchell, Senior Adviser on the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research, tells The Cipher Transient. “Warfare and instability in a rustic on the cross-roads of Asia have value the nation billions of {dollars} in misplaced funding, led to cratering of the home economic system, and unleashed an explosion of drug, human and weapons trafficking, infectious illness, and a humanitarian disaster that has pushed tens of millions into neighboring international locations as refugees on the expense of regional stability and growth.”
A Nation in Collapse
Following the February 2021 coup, Myanmar’s navy, generally known as the Tatmadaw, unleashed a violent crackdown on protestors. When bullets and concern emptied the streets, resistance went underground.
Immediately, that resistance has advanced right into a full-fledged civil warfare encompassing a patchwork of Individuals’s Protection Forces (PDFs), ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), and native militias.
A number of the strongest EAOs, such because the Kachin Independence Military (KIA) within the north and the Karen Nationwide Liberation Military (KNLA) within the southeast, have aligned with the PDFs, forming non permanent alliances in opposition to the widespread enemy. The junta, in the meantime, has regained territory in locations like Nawnghkio, however at a excessive value — each in casualties and rising resistance.
Simply weeks in the past, the junta mentioned it transferred energy to a civilian-led interim authorities and allowed the state of emergency in place because the coup, to run out forward of elections set for December and January. The established order hasn’t modified although, with coup chief Min Aung Hlaing retaining energy. Western governments and several other analysts have subsequently dismissed the elections as a sham, anticipated to be dominated by navy proxies and only a transfer to additional entrench the navy’s energy.
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“The battle in Myanmar undermines ASEAN unity and dilutes U.S. affect within the area as a result of ASEAN is a weaker accomplice in consequence, and extra beholden to authoritarian companions in gentle of the Myanmar junta’s realignment with Beijing,” Hunter Marston, an Indo-Pacific safety analyst centered on U.S. alliances, technique and Southeast Asian geopolitics, tells The Cipher Transient. “On the similar time, the battle has facilitated the proliferation of crime and illicit economies flourishing in Myanmar’s borderlands, which have focused U.S. residents in addition to different international locations across the globe, raking in billions of {dollars} every year.”
ASEAN, the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations, is a key regional bloc that the U.S. depends on to counterbalance China’s rising affect and advance diplomatic, financial, and safety cooperation within the Indo-Pacific. The Affiliation, lengthy hampered by inner divisions and non-interference norms, has not intervened in Myanmar. Current efforts to re-engage with the junta have made little affect and solely highlighted the bloc’s diminishing leverage. A fractured or weakened ASEAN, consultants warning, not solely hampers coordinated regional responses but additionally complicates Washington’s efforts to interact successfully on shared challenges, from maritime safety to transnational crime.
Nonetheless, that is not simply an inner combat regarding Myanmar. Because the warfare drags on, it has grow to be a brand new entrance within the world battle between democratic and authoritarian powers.
China, Russia, and the Battlefield of Affect
Myanmar’s geographic place, wedged between China, India, and the Bay of Bengal, makes it a important node in Southeast Asia’s strategic structure. It is usually a rustic wealthy in uncommon earth minerals, oil, fuel, and hydropower — property that Beijing, specifically, is eager to manage.
China, which has lengthy courted the Burmese navy, has navigated a fragile stability within the battle. Whereas formally calling for peace and dialogue, Beijing has equipped the junta with arms and political cowl. In the meantime, its entry to uncommon earth provide chains by way of northern Myanmar has grow to be much more beneficial amid world competitors for strategic assets.
“The junta receives direct and oblique monetary assist from its gross sales of oil and fuel to China and Thailand, restricted commerce with different ASEAN states comparable to Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia, and direct money transfers and help packages from China,” mentioned Marston. “Its state-owned banks and corporations additionally extract an excessive amount of income from pure assets throughout the nation, in addition to property taxes to a lesser extent in city facilities like Yangon and Mandalay.”
Russia, too, has deepened ties with the navy regime. Lately, Moscow has grow to be a main arms provider and protection accomplice to the junta, desperate to broaden its affect in a area the place Western alliances have weakened. Myanmar has reciprocated, with junta generals attending Moscow’s navy parades and alluring Russian advisors into the nation.
“That is not only a civil warfare — it’s an open door for authoritarian powers to realize a foothold in Southeast Asia,” one former U.S. official who labored on Myanmar coverage tells The Cipher Transient.
Cross-Border Instability
The battle’s repercussions are already spilling throughout Myanmar’s borders. In Thailand, shelling and firefights close to the frontier have pushed hundreds of refugees into crowded border camps. In India’s northeast, cross-border insurgencies and weapons flows have revived longstanding safety issues. Bangladesh continues to shoulder the burden of over 1,000,000 Rohingya refugees, with little prospect of secure repatriation because the navy escalates its violence in Rakhine State.
Illicit arms trafficking, drug manufacturing within the Golden Triangle, and human smuggling have surged in tandem with the combating. Some rebel teams fund their campaigns by way of methamphetamine manufacturing and jade mining, whereas the junta leverages state-owned enterprises and navy conglomerates to bankroll its warfare machine.
Mitchell emphasised that this has “additionally led to the proliferation of ‘rip-off facilities’ alongside Burma’s border which can be bilking Individuals and others out of billions of {dollars}.”
“The violence and absence of an efficient worldwide response have created a gap for China to insert itself even additional into the inner affairs of the nation, nook its uncommon earths and broader useful resource market, and try to create a consumer state by way of which it could have strategic entry to the Indian Ocean,” he added.
Washington’s Take
So, what’s the USA authorities doing to handle the Myanmar disaster?
The second Trump administration has taken a markedly completely different method to Myanmar in comparison with the Biden period.
“The primary Trump administration was gradual to sentence the Myanmar navy’s violent clearance operations in opposition to the Rohingya, which the Biden administration later confirmed met the standards for genocide and crimes in opposition to humanity,” Marston mentioned.
Whereas sanctions in opposition to the navy junta stay in place, the Trump administration has largely avoided commenting on the nation’s inner dynamics. Broadly, it has sharply decreased U.S. funding for democracy promotion, human rights, and impartial media. American-backed shops comparable to Voice of America and Radio Free Asia have been considerably affected—a transfer that Min Aung Hlaing publicly welcomed, expressing his “honest appreciation” to President Trump.
In a notable diplomatic growth in July 2025, President Trump despatched a direct letter to Min Aung Hlaing relating to tariffs, which the junta interpreted as a type of public acknowledgment and a diplomatic victory, marking a departure from earlier diplomatic isolation.
Moreover, the Trump administration has enacted new journey restrictions, together with an entire suspension of entry for Myanmar nationals as immigrants and non-immigrants, probably stopping persecuted individuals from reaching American soil.
This mix of continued sanctions with decreased democracy help and a extra transactional, direct communication method with the junta underscores the Trump administration’s “America First” overseas coverage, leaving the way forward for U.S. affect in Myanmar unsure amidst the continued disaster.
There are, nevertheless, different efforts to carry Myanmar again into the limelight.
Current legislative efforts, comparable to the “No New Burma Funds Act” launched in July by Rep. Nikema Williams (D-GA), goal to curb oblique monetary flows to the regime. These embody revenues from pure fuel exports involving overseas firms, charges paid to military-controlled infrastructure, and leakage from humanitarian help operations in junta-held areas.
Moreover, Burmese gems and timber typically attain U.S. markets through third international locations, and digital platforms could unwittingly monetize content material linked to the junta — all contributing to the regime’s monetary lifeline.
In keeping with Marston, “western international locations might theoretically apply secondary sanctions on any nation conducting enterprise with Myanmar’s power firms or state-owned banks, which might squeeze Thailand and Singapore specifically, together with China, however they’ve been unwilling to expend the political capital essential to take action.”
“Moreover, Washington has avoided imposing essentially the most complete sanctions on Myanmar’s economic system for concern of injuring your entire inhabitants and setting the nation’s financial restoration again even additional after earlier rounds of sanctions within the 2000s,” he continued.
As well as, there may be the “BRAVE Burma Act,” a bipartisan U.S. Home invoice launched on Could 5, 2025, by Representatives Invoice Huizenga (R-MI) and Betty McCollum (D-MN), amongst different co-sponsors from each events. This laws, which has superior within the Home, goals to extend strain on Myanmar’s navy junta by requiring stronger sanctions on entities like state-owned enterprises and people concerned within the jet gasoline sector, and by establishing a U.S. Particular Envoy for Burma.
“Proper now, the administration ought to appoint a particular envoy. Personnel is coverage, and and not using a champion in Washington, US Burma coverage will stay adrift,” Marston asserted.
Mitchell concurred that the Trump Administration “ought to appoint a particular envoy primarily based within the area to construct nearer relations with the (opposition) Nationwide Unity Authorities, ethnic leaders and different legit representatives of the Burmese individuals, and coordinate with our regional allies and companions on a typical method to the battle.”
“The administration ought to make it clear that it doesn’t take into account the junta legit and that its pretensions to rule are unacceptable,” he continued. “To that finish, it ought to tighten sanctions to close off its entry to cash, weapons, and worldwide legitimacy. General, the administration ought to acknowledge that China is benefiting from our neglect and reply constantly with the place developments within the nation are trending.”
The Strategic Price of Indifference
Whole cities have been razed. Faculties and hospitals have been bombed. Greater than 18 million individuals—almost a 3rd of Myanmar’s inhabitants—now rely on humanitarian help, in accordance with the United Nations. The warfare has triggered one of many world’s largest inner displacements and turned Myanmar’s borderlands right into a hotbed of organized crime, cyber scams, and weapons trafficking—networks that now attain far past Southeast Asia.
“The longer the U.S. stays disengaged, the more room there may be for China and Russia to entrench themselves,” says Hunter Marston. “With out high-level diplomatic strain or punitive measures, the junta may have no cause to pursue a negotiated resolution, and the nation’s collapse will proceed to tug down the area.”
China has already endorsed Myanmar’s deliberate elections in December, regardless of ongoing civil warfare and widespread instability. In distinction, ASEAN has mentioned elections ought to solely observe a return to peace.
“Realistically, the one hope of pressuring the navy to pursue peace talks is to win on the battlefield. Thus, it’s important to curb the navy’s entry to arms,” Marston burdened. “The one method to do this is by imposing secondary sanctions on Chinese language weapons firms like NORINCO, which proceed to offer munitions to the navy. Doing so would put Beijing on discover that it not has carte blanche in Myanmar and would align with the targets of U.S. competitors with China in checking China’s world navy enlargement.”
Mitchell additionally underscored that Washington’s solely leverage for constructive change lies in immediately reducing off the junta’s monetary streams. If Myanmar is allowed to fall absolutely into the grip of autocracy, crime syndicates, and overseas navy powers, the implications is not going to stay confined to its borders.
“Pressuring overseas banks (in Thailand and Singapore, as an example) into shutting off monetary providers to the junta, sanctioning Myanmar’s Central Financial institution, and imposing penalties on different banks inside and outdoors the nation doing enterprise with the junta can assist shut off capital to the regime,” he mentioned.
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