“We mentioned the F-35 concern. We made funds of $1.3 to $1.4 billion for the jets, and we noticed that Mr. Trump was well-intentioned about delivering them,” Erdogan mentioned. Notably, he added that Turkey’s Russian-made S-400 air protection system—on the middle of the years-long deadlock—“didn’t come up” in the course of the talks.
That element issues. In 2019, america formally expelled Turkey from the multinational F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, citing the S-400 buy as a direct menace to the plane’s stealth and intelligence safeguards. On the time, the choice was extensively seen as a pointy rebuke to a NATO ally drifting nearer to Moscow.
With a shifting geopolitical panorama and renewed U.S.-Turkey dialogue, the query returns: ought to Turkey be allowed again into the F-35 program?
Many nationwide safety consultants argue that the dangers of reintegration far outweigh the advantages—each technically and strategically.
“Turkey made its selection regardless of repeated warnings, recommendation, and stress from allies. It went into this with eyes huge open and determined in 2019 to proceed with the S-400 missile protection system,” Sinan Ciddi, Affiliate Professor of Safety Research on the Marine Corps College and Senior Fellow for the Basis for Protection of Democracies, tells The Cipher Transient. “Provided that, there’s no actual upside to letting Turkey again into the F-35 program. The related risks are vital.”
Others contend that the potential upsides are value contemplating.
“Bringing Turkey again into the F-35 program might strengthen NATO’s southern flank, the place Turkey’s strategic place bordering Syria, Iran, and Russia issues. Its air pressure, caught with getting older F-16s, would acquire fifth-generation stealth with the F-35, boosting NATO interoperability and deterrence in opposition to adversaries like China and Russia,” John Thomas, Managing Director of strategic advocacy agency, Nestpoint Associates, tells The Cipher Transient. “The deal might permit Turkish corporations to make elements which might decrease prices, saving US taxpayers billions.”
Ankara had invested roughly $1.4 billion into the undertaking earlier than its elimination. Turkish protection contractors performed a key position in manufacturing over 900 elements for the plane, a lot of which needed to be relocated to U.S. and European services at appreciable price and logistical pressure.
But even amongst advocates, most agree that reentry would should be conditional and tightly managed.
There may be additionally a compelling strategic case. Geographically, Turkey straddles Europe, Asia, and the Center East, providing air base entry close to battle zones from Syria to the Caucasus and jap Mediterranean.
Past {hardware} and geography, some view Turkey’s reintegration as a way to attract Ankara again from its more and more unbiased protection path and nearer to the West. Erdogan has hedged in opposition to U.S. sanctions by ramping up cooperation with Russia and accelerating improvement of a homegrown fifth-generation fighter, the KAAN, which accomplished its first take a look at flight in early 2024.
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The Dangers That Haven’t Gone Away
Nonetheless, the considerations that led to Turkey’s unique expulsion stay unresolved. Chief amongst them is the continued presence of the Russian S-400 system on Turkish soil.
“The S-400’s radars are a dealbreaker,” Thomas asserted. “Russian programs might gather knowledge on the F-35’s stealth, risking leaks to Moscow, endangering American pilots and allies like Israel.”
Washington officers have repeatedly warned that working each the S-400 and F-35s in the identical atmosphere poses an unacceptable danger to delicate knowledge and stealth expertise.
“To revive belief, Turkey should absolutely decommission its S-400s—dismantling key parts or transferring them to U.S. management at Incirlik. Authorized ensures, like a binding dedication to not procure Russian programs once more, should be non-negotiable,” Thomas continued.
Whereas technical safeguards and authorized commitments might assist mitigate safety dangers, others warning that deeper strategic questions stay unresolved.
Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of army evaluation at Protection Priorities, tells The Cipher Transient that there are a number of questions Washington officers have to ask.
“How seemingly is it that Turkey would battle alongside the U.S. in a warfare or disaster with F-35s ought to they regain entry to this system? Previously, they’ve even denied the U.S. even the flexibility to function from Turkish bases, so there are causes to be skeptical,” she mentioned.
From her purview, Ankara ought to “give the S-400 system again to Russia if they’re severe about reentering the F-35 program.”
“That is in all probability not possible. Decommissioning the system is perhaps ample, however in that case, Turkey’s entry to the F-35’s categorized expertise ought to be restricted,” Kavanagh mentioned.
Though Turkish officers have hinted at a attainable deactivation or sale of the S-400, no concrete steps have been taken.
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Congressional Crimson Traces and Government Authority
Reintegrating Turkey wouldn’t simply be a army or diplomatic choice—it will require navigating deep skepticism on Capitol Hill. Beneath the Countering America’s Adversaries Via Sanctions Act (CAATSA), the U.S. imposed sanctions on Turkey’s protection procurement company in 2020. Lifting these sanctions would seemingly require congressional approval, and opposition stays sturdy.
Senator Jim Risch, a senior Republican on the Senate International Relations Committee, has repeatedly said that Turkey mustn’t obtain the F-35 so long as the S-400 is operational.
Furthermore, in July, a bipartisan letter started circulating within the Home, authored by Representatives Chris Pappas (D-NH), Gus Bilirakis (R-FL), Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY), and Dina Titus (D-NV). The lawmakers urged the administration to dam any efforts they are saying would violate U.S. regulation and compromise nationwide safety coverage. The State Division responded to the letter, saying: “Now we have expressed our displeasure with Ankara’s acquisition of the S-400 system and have made clear the steps that ought to be taken as a part of our ongoing evaluation of the implementation of CAATSA sanctions.”
Ciddi identified, nonetheless, that there are methods to skirt Congress.
“The Nationwide Protection Authorization Act consists of specific language: so long as Turkey maintains the S-400 on its soil, it can’t obtain the F-35. That’s been the case since 2019,” he defined. “May that be bypassed? If the President had been to invoke nationwide emergency powers, there’s a theoretical path round Congress.”
Past Congress, Ciddi continued, there are additionally “considerations from U.S. allies—Israel, Greece, Cyprus—who argue Turkey has repeatedly crossed pink strains, not solely by buying Russian missile programs but in addition by deepening strategic ties with Moscow and supporting teams like Hamas.”
“It’s not simply concerning the S-400 anymore; it’s a couple of broader sample,” he mentioned. “Turkey isn’t simply shopping for arms from Russia. It’s additionally constructing nuclear energy vegetation with them, elevating considerations about their eventual nuclear functionality. And nonetheless, Erdogan hasn’t been held to account.”
There are additionally regional implications to contemplate. Israel, which depends closely on its fleet of F-35s for sustaining its qualitative army edge, has traditionally been cautious of superior U.S. weapons flowing to rivals or unstable actors within the area. Though Turkey and Israel have just lately taken cautious steps towards diplomatic normalization, tensions stay excessive over Ankara’s help for Hamas and its rhetoric in opposition to Israeli army operations.
On the identical time, Turkey’s protection posture has shifted notably since its elimination. It has solid stronger ties with Russia, expanded protection commerce with Central Asian states, and emphasised sovereignty over strategic alignment. Erdogan’s authorities has leaned on nationalist rhetoric and positioned Turkey as an influence dealer, unbiased of each the U.S. and the EU. Analysts underscore that re-admitting Ankara with out substantial ensures dangers validating this drift—and will erode the credibility of Western alliances.
A Conditional Path Again—If There Is One
But some analysts argue that the present geopolitical second presents a slender window for recalibration. The resurgence of great-power competitors, coupled with Turkey’s financial strains and regional fatigue, might make Erdogan extra inclined to have interaction in negotiations.
But, even restricted reentry carries vital political and strategic dangers. Whether or not Turkey is introduced again in or stored at arm’s size, the choice will set a precedent not only for arms gross sales—however for a way the U.S. manages defiant allies in an period of world fragmentation.
Because the Protection Division emphasised in 2019, the F-35 program will depend on mutual belief and alignment. The query now’s whether or not these foundations may be restored—or whether or not reengagement with out clear circumstances will do extra hurt than good.
“5 U.S. administrations now have all despatched the identical message: that Turkey is simply too huge to fail. Regardless of how Turkey undermines or acts in opposition to U.S. pursuits, it has barely ever confronted any repercussions from Washington,” Blaise Misztal, Vice President for Coverage on the Jewish Institute for Nationwide Safety of America, tells The Cipher Transient.
“To permit Turkey to get the F-35 now, with out actual steps to show it’s prepared to be a greater ally, will solely additional persuade Turkey that it might do no matter it desires with out worry of U.S. pushback. Nations surrounding Turkey, in the meantime, whether or not U.S. companions or not, will solely have their fears confirmed that they have to put together themselves to confront Turkey’s rising energy.”
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