NPR’s David Folkenflik speaks to strategic research professor Phillips O’Brien of the College of St. Andrews in Scotland concerning the significance of Ukraine’s navy incursion into Russia.
DAVID FOLKENFLIK, HOST:
It is the most important invasion of Russia for the reason that finish of World Battle II – Ukraine’s shock incursion into the Kursk area. It surprised Moscow. The combating has continued for 2 weeks now, and Russia’s vowed to retaliate with, quote, “a worthy response.” However may this operation change the very course of the battle? Becoming a member of us now’s Phillips O’Brien. He is a professor of strategic research at St. Andrews College in Scotland. Welcome to this system.
PHILLIPS O’BRIEN: Glad to be right here.
FOLKENFLIK: Professor O’Brien, simply what has Ukraine achieved, and the way important is it?
O’BRIEN: Properly, they’ve modified plenty of issues. I imply, they had been by no means going to invade Russia and take Moscow. That was by no means, say, the aim of this operation. The offensive has plenty of causes. One, I feel, is to vary the – one of many dynamics of the struggle, which was that, in a way, Russia was by no means to be attacked immediately over its border, that america and fears of escalation and different of Ukraine’s companions haven’t wished Ukraine to assault Russia immediately. And the Ukrainians mentioned sufficient of this. Russia has had an enormous benefit by not having to defend their border. We’re going to make them need to defend their border.
The second is, they realized the Russians have only a few reserves. The Russians have been placing every thing into the Donbas. And so what the Ukrainians are saying – you don’t have any reserves. We’ll now make you attempt to transfer your troops round and defend yourselves since you’re weak in that sense.
One other factor is to point out the Russian navy is simply not this nice highly effective power that typically the Western press makes it out to be. The Russian navy can be a ponderous group with some main weaknesses. And in doing this operation, the Ukrainians have proven us what these are.
FOLKENFLIK: Is there some hazard of overreach right here for the Ukrainians?
O’BRIEN: Properly, the hazard that some persons are saying is it means the Ukrainians have used these forces right here as a substitute of throwing them into the Donbas. The Ukrainians I communicate to assume this can be a nonsense argument. The Donbas is the place the Russians have virtually every thing, and so they’re advancing very slowly by simply blowing issues up of their wake. So by simply throwing extra forces within the Donbas, the Ukrainians thought, it is simply placing your head right into a – to a meat grinder, that this was, in actual fact, a greater method to do it as a result of it performs on Russian weaknesses and takes the initiative away from Russia. So there are some Western analysts who say this can be a danger. The Ukrainians I communicate to do not settle for the danger that they’re being advised they’re operating.
FOLKENFLIK: How large a setback is that this for Russia and for President Vladimir Putin?
O’BRIEN: Properly, I imply, if Ukraine can take a bit of Russia and fortify it and maintain it, this can be a large downside for Putin. Putin is a dictator. Dictators thrive on visions of power, that they management their nation. They supply safety. If the Ukrainians can present that Putin cannot defend the border of Russia and, furthermore, cannot drive the Ukrainians again, that may be a large downside for Putin’s picture.
Additionally there are particular political issues we’ve got to look at. The Ukrainians have already captured plenty of conscripts. And conscripts are the draftees who Putin has mentioned won’t ever go battle in Ukraine. However truly, the Russians, trigger they do not have plenty of reserves, have needed to ship conscripts to try to battle the Ukrainians, and so they’re dropping them. So there are plenty of, we would say, potential political pitfalls for Putin on this.
FOLKENFLIK: And lastly, what’s your sense of how this would possibly play out within the coming weeks?
O’BRIEN: Properly, I feel the Ukrainians are going to remain there and power the Russians to try to deploy a big military to drive them again. The Ukrainians do not feel any want to go away proper now. This is not a raid the place they will run in and run out in just a few days, which some individuals thought to start with. They do not plan to occupy Russia ceaselessly, however they don’t seem to be going to go away until the Russians deploy huge power and attempt to drive them out. So I feel what we’ll do is see extra of the identical till the Russians, you might say, get critical and understand they will want a really giant power to try to push the Ukrainians again.
FOLKENFLIK: We have been talking with Phillips O’Brien of St Andrews College and writer of the forthcoming e-book “The Strategists.” Professor O’Brien, thanks a lot for becoming a member of us.
O’BRIEN: Thanks.
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