THE IRON TRIANGLE — Welcome to the inaugural version of “The Iron Triangle”, my new Cipher Temporary column that serves the three pillars of recent protection: Procurement Officers tasked with shopping for the longer term, Buyers who fund the know-how, and Coverage Wonks who analyze the influence of know-how on the worldwide order.
My first column explores the shift from “Chatbots” to “Brokers.” In Washington, they name it Agentic AI. Within the Valley, they name it Motion-Oriented LLMs. Within the subject, it’s the distinction between a system that tells you a storm is coming and one which autonomously strikes your fleet to a protected harbor earlier than the primary raindrop falls.
The Expertise: From “Prediction” to “Company”
For years, AI in protection has been about Pc Imaginative and prescient, duties resembling labeling tanks in a photograph. Whereas Pc Imaginative and prescient has saved numerous hours of labor, it would not tackle the challenges related to overloading analysts with knowledge.
Agentic AI (Agentic) is a generational leap. For readability, Agentic refers to programs able to:
- Analyzing the commander’s intent.
- Figuring out and evaluating subordinate duties.
- Executing a sequence of actions throughout a number of platforms with out human prompting.
Agentic processes huge quantities of knowledge into data, exponentially growing every person’s effectiveness. With Agentic, groups of analysts will not pour via volumes of irrelevant info trying to find a couple of key indicators. Agentic will distill torrents of knowledge, a aspect impact of exponential will increase within the variety of sensors (drones), down to simply the important parts. In some instances, Agentic could even make choices with out person enter.
A number of questions come to thoughts. First, what’s going to my analysts do with this windfall of time? That is a dialogue for one more article. As a substitute, let’s make this related.
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For the Procurement Officer
Procurement officers needs to be cautious of “Black Field” Contracts. If a vendor claims their agent makes use of “proprietary reasoning” that’s tough to audit, stroll away. Think about commanders whose main concern is managing danger. Within the inevitable post-accident investigation, “the algorithm made a selection” is not going to function robust authorized protection. The Pentagon should demand Chain of Desire Transparency. The software program should log why it selected one plan of action over one other, and the choice tree have to be regularly refined.
The Pentagon also needs to transfer away from Agency-Fastened-Worth contracts. Agentic requires Steady Authority to Function, not solely to stay useful, however in a aggressive context (battle with a world energy). If The Pentagon buys a “static” model, the system can be out of date by the point the bill is cleared, particularly contemplating the Pentagon forms. Procurement Officers can buy the pipeline, not the package deal.
The Funding Thesis
The problem for traders is distinguishing between a “skinny wrapper” on AI and a foundational protection working system. Funding companies typically rent retired officers to guage protection know-how. These officers retired years in the past, and will not have had first-hand expertise with know-how whereas they have been energetic. Now the funding agency expects them to supply recommendation on rising know-how that many 20-year-old practitioners are simply studying about. It’s not a good expectation, and can result in investments in irrelevant applied sciences.
Proximity breeds alternative. Buyers ought to get entangled with practitioners. I’m not suggesting that VCs attend Nationwide Coaching Middle rotations, although I do get pleasure from that psychological image. There are different alternatives to work together with finish customers; small-scale workouts, commerce exhibits and demonstrations are some.
Watch out for the moat. The worth is not within the Massive Language Mannequin; it’s within the Motion Layer. Buyers ought to search for startups who’re constructing “high-side” integrations—firms which have safety credentials to plug into precise knowledge. Solely then will it turn out to be clear how the know-how performs.
Search for the exit. Some “Large Primes” are hardware-heavy and software-poor. They want to purchase “Agentic Middleware” to make legacy programs extra related in an autonomous age. The “Protection Unicorn” of 2026 can be an organization that gives the common mind for antiquated {hardware}. There are some promising firms targeted on precisely this problem. No matter is created needs to be collaborative, to advertise and never stifle innovation.
The Coverage Wonk’s Warning
Within the early days of AI, coverage was involved about AI’s potential results on strategic stability. If each the U.S. and a peer competitor deploy Agentic to handle strategic command and management–or frontline skirmishes–we’d enter a “Velocity of Relevance” lure. When AI reacts to AI, the window for diplomatic de-escalation shrinks from hours to milliseconds, successfully disappearing and devolving right into a machine on machine battle the place people undergo the implications.
To forestall this devolution, there needs to be a international coverage shift, a transfer from Arms Management to Algorithm Management. The subsequent nice treaty shouldn’t deal with the variety of warheads, however the verification of “Human-on-the-loop” safeguards and common requirements.
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My Take. This the place I get to debate what excites me about this new know-how.
Navy Planning. Agentic AI will essentially change “plan of action growth” throughout army planning. Navy Officers, like everybody, undergo from useful fixedness. Their creativity might be restricted by their experiences. Agentic will see hundreds of potential pathways for conducting new missions. I prefer to assume that this can result in extra inventive options being utilized to rising challenges. Look out govt officers, AI is coming on your jobs!
The Threat. There’s a likelihood that our authorities turns into reliant on Agentic. The Navy plans for all the pieces. I’ve seen Workers Officers plan for a way and when to make plans. Decreasing planning to a button click on may diminish important evaluation, a elementary talent for efficient leaders, which could have a compounding adverse impact on future generations.
Mission Rehearsals. Agentic will allow warfighters to rehearse missions based mostly on actual time intelligence. Think about flying a drone simulator the place the terrain, the targets, and the climate are all exactly the identical as these within the goal space of curiosity. What’s extra, Agentic will allow simulated adversaries to react extra realistically. Fight Coaching Facilities would be the subsequent casualty of Agentic. I don’t assume any soldier can be unhappy to study that their NTC rotation is cancelled…
The Threat. Agentic would possibly get it fallacious, resulting in gross overestimations–or underestimations–of adversarial capabilities. And what occurs when a commander decides to disregard their AI, then suffers a defeat? Punishing the commander on this scenario would encourage future leaders to blindly comply with Agentic steerage. The federal government should construct guidelines which protect and promote impartial resolution authority, making certain that Agentic enhances, however doesn’t substitute the commander’s judgment.
Agentic is the primary know-how that I can recall that does not simply make our weapons higher; it makes our decision-makers quicker. For the Procurement Officer, it is a legal responsibility to handle; for the VC, it is the last word “sticky” SaaS play; and for the Wonk, it’s a terrifying new variable within the steadiness of energy. Present worldwide legal guidelines of battle are based mostly on human intent and accountability. However it stays legally unclear who’s accountable—the developer, the operator, or the commander—when an autonomous agent makes an error. Essentially the most urgent requirement now will not be for the very best new know-how, however for our authorized and coverage frameworks to maintain tempo.
Joey Gagnard is a Cipher Temporary columnist who repeatedly shares his perspective on nationwide safety and know-how by way of his Iron Triangle column.
The Cipher Temporary is dedicated to publishing a variety of views on nationwide safety points submitted by deeply skilled nationwide safety professionals. Opinions expressed are these of the creator and don’t signify the views or opinions of The Cipher Temporary.
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