Neglect every part that you just realized in seventh-grade math class. Right here’s how you can precisely decide the precise chance of your pal exhibiting as much as these plans later primarily based on the theoretical chance that they simply texted to you.
“I’m 99% certain I could make it tonight.” = 50% likelihood they’ll make it tonight.
“I’ll for certain be there!” = 83% likelihood they’ll be there.
“I could possibly be satisfied . . . ” = They’re in sweatpants, and subsequently can’t be satisfied.
“I’m 50/50 on going tonight.” = These are literally fairly good odds.
“I’ll 100% be there.” = 30% likelihood they’ll be there, 70% likelihood you’ll get a textual content from them 5 minutes earlier than the meetup time reporting that they’re two stops away however simply threw up and assume it’s finest in the event that they go residence and relaxation.
“Odds are you’ll beat me there since I’m coming straight from work.” = This individual shall be too drained to satisfy you. They’ll finally declare that they’re caught on the workplace, however they’re going the fuck residence. Don’t consider me? Examine their location. Yup. They simply stopped sharing it with you.
“90% likelihood I’m gonna make it.” = -3% likelihood they’re gonna make it.
“When did it get so chilly swiftly?!” = Begin inviting your backup associates.
“I’ll most definitely have the ability to get there just a little after 8!” = Deliver granola bars. You’ll eat your first chunk of dinner at 9:17 P.M.
“I’m 80% in.” = This can be a dependable statistic; anticipate an 80% dedication price.
“I’m 80% down.” = Very completely different from “80% in.” Any time somebody makes use of the adjective “down” to explain their willingness, divide their reported odds by two. On this case, your pal is definitely 40% down, so go forward and preserve that Korean sheet masks in your face some time longer. Fuck it, take your pants off, too. No person’s going anyplace.
“I could possibly be down.” = Let’s use what we realized above. Zero divided by two? Zero.
“We nonetheless on for tonight?” = Oof, a query mark? This individual sadly simply bought their interval, and it was kinda late this month, so it’s heavy and crampy and simply not a very good scene over there. Ship meals and don’t anticipate to see her for a minimum of seventy-two hours.
“O.Ok. See you tonight. Deliver pashmina or comparable in case A.C. is blasting in restaurant.” = That is your mother. She shall be there early and may have already requested the waiter to change tables 3 times earlier than your arrival.
“Tbh there’s a couple of 10% likelihood you’ll see me at that shit.” = You will note them at that shit and you’ll share a magical, life-changing, although unusually platonic, kiss on the lips. I don’t know the way else to explain it—you simply should be there to seek out out.
“Hey u right here?” = The 50/50 pal confirmed up! You didn’t belief our math and figured they weren’t coming, so that you bailed. Rookie mistake. ♦
