Why Putin and Modi are assembly in Delhi

Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived for a two-day go to to India, the place he was embraced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi forward of an annual summit held by each international locations.

Delhi and Moscow are anticipated to signal plenty of offers in the course of the go to, which comes months after the US elevated stress on India to cease shopping for Russian oil.

It additionally comes as US President Donald Trump’s administration holds a sequence of talks with Russia and Ukraine in an try to finish the struggle.

India and Russia have been shut allies for many years and Putin and Modi share a heat relationship. Here is a take a look at why they each want one another – and what to observe for as they meet.

By Steve Rosenberg

Why are relations with India key for the Kremlin?

Nicely, for a begin, take a look at the numbers:

• a inhabitants of practically a billion and a half.

• financial development exceeding 8%. India is the world’s quickest rising main economic system.

That makes it a massively enticing marketplace for Russian items and sources – particularly oil.

India is the world’s third largest shopper of crude oil and has been shopping for giant volumes from Russia. That wasn’t all the time the case. Earlier than the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, solely 2.5% of India’s oil imports had been Russian.

That determine jumped to 35% as India took benefit of Russian worth reductions prompted by sanctions towards Moscow and Russia’s restricted entry to the European market.

India was joyful. Washington much less so.

Earlier this 12 months, the Trump administration slapped a further 25% tariff on Indian items, arguing that by buying oil from Russia, India was serving to to fund the Kremlin’s struggle chest. Orders from India for Russian oil have since dropped. President Putin can be eager for India to maintain shopping for.

For Moscow, weapons gross sales to India are one other precedence and have been since Soviet occasions. Forward of Putin’s go to, there have been reviews that India plans to buy state-of-the-art Russian fighter jets and air defence programs.

Russia, hit by a labour scarcity, additionally sees India as a worthwhile supply of expert staff.

However there’s geopolitics at play, too.

The Kremlin enjoys demonstrating that Western efforts to isolate it over the struggle in Ukraine have failed.

Flying to India and assembly Prime Minister Modi is a method of doing that.

So is travelling to China and holding talks with Xi Jinping, as Putin did three months in the past. He met Modi on the identical journey. The picture of the three leaders smiling and chatting collectively despatched a transparent message that, regardless of the struggle in Ukraine, Moscow has highly effective allies who assist the idea of a “multi-polar world”.

Russia lauds its “no limits partnership” with China.

It’s simply as vocal about its “particular and privileged strategic partnership” with India.

That may be a stark distinction to Moscow’s strained relationship with the European Union.

“I feel the Kremlin is bound that the West, together with Europe, completely failed,” believes Novaya Gazeta columnist Andrei Kolesnikov.

“We aren’t remoted, as a result of we now have connections to Asia and the World South. Economically, that is the long run. In that sense Russia returned as the primary actor in these components of the globe, just like the Soviet Union. However even the Soviet Union had particular channels and connections to the US, West Germany and France. It had a multi-vector coverage.

“However now we’re completely remoted from Europe. That is unprecedented. Our philosophers all the time stated that Russia was part of Europe. Now we’re not. It is a massive failure and an enormous loss. I am positive that a part of Russia’s political and entrepreneurial class is dreaming of returning to Europe and of doing enterprise not solely with China and India.”

This week, although, anticipate to listen to about Russia-India friendship, commerce offers and elevated financial cooperation between Moscow and Delhi.

By Vikas Pandey

Putin’s go to to Delhi is coming at an important time for Modi and India’s international ambitions.

India-Russia ties return to the Soviet period and have endured no matter the altering geopolitical panorama.

Putin has arguably put extra time and vitality into this relationship than different Russian leaders earlier than him.

As for Modi, regardless of coming underneath intense stress from Western governments to criticise Russia over its struggle in Ukraine, he maintained that dialogue was the one method to resolve the battle.

This was India’s “strategic autonomy” at play – with Modi occupying a specific place within the geopolitical order the place he held shut ties with Moscow whereas sustaining his relationship with the West on the similar time.

That labored – till Trump returned to the White Home. India-US ties have hit an all-time low in latest months as the 2 international locations have didn’t resolve the tariff impasse.

On this context, Putin’s go to assumes extra significance for Modi than ever earlier than as a result of it can take a look at India’s geopolitical autonomy. He can be strolling the proverbial diplomatic tightrope right here.

Modi would wish to present Indians at dwelling and within the wider world that he nonetheless counts Putin as his ally and hasn’t given into stress from Trump, whom he has earlier referred to as his “true good friend”.

However he has additionally confronted stress from his allies in Europe – simply this week, the German, French and UK ambassadors in India wrote a uncommon joint article in a serious newspaper criticising Russia’s stance on Ukraine.

And so, Modi must make sure that the strengthening of India-Russia ties doesn’t overshadow ongoing commerce talks with the US and his partnership with Europe.

“For India, the problem is strategic steadiness – defending autonomy whereas navigating stress from Washington and dependence on Moscow,” stated the World Commerce Analysis Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based think-tank.

Modi’s different precedence can be to unlock the potential of bilateral commerce between India and Russia.

Analysts have usually stated that the financial relationship between the 2 robust allies has underperformed for many years.

Their bilateral commerce rose to $68.72bn on the finish of March 2025, up from simply $8.1bn in 2020. This was largely because of India sharply rising discounted Russian oil purchases. This has skewed the steadiness closely in favour of Russia and that’s one thing Modi would wish to right.

With Indian corporations already lowering oil purchases from Russia to keep away from sanctions from Washington, the 2 international locations will take a look at different areas to spice up commerce.

Defence is the best choose. India’s defence imports from Russia diminished to 36% between 2020 and 2024, from the peaks of 72% in 2010-2015 and 55% between 2015 and 2019, in response to Stockholm Worldwide Peace Analysis Institute.

This was largely because of India’s try to diversify its defence portfolio and enhance home manufacturing.

However a more in-depth take a look at these numbers tells a distinct story. A number of Indian defence platforms nonetheless rely closely on Russia. A lot of its 29 air power squadrons use Russian Sukhoi-30 jets.

India’s restricted armed battle with Pakistan in Might this 12 months proved the indispensable position of Russian platforms just like the S-400 air defence programs in its armed forces nevertheless it additionally confirmed the vulnerabilities that the nation urgently wants to repair.

Studies recommend that India desires to purchase the upgraded S-500 programs and the Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet. Pakistan’s buy of the China-made J-35 fifth-generation stealth fighter has not gone unnoticed in Delhi, and it will wish to safe a comparable jet as quickly as potential.

However Russia is already dealing with a scarcity of crucial elements because of sanctions and the struggle in Ukraine. The deadline to ship some models of the S-400 have reportedly been delayed to 2026. Modi will search some ensures on timelines with Putin.

Modi would additionally need Russia’s economic system to open area for Indian merchandise to repair the large commerce imbalance.

“Shopper-oriented and high-visibility classes stay marginal: smartphones ($75.9m), shrimp ($75.7m), meat ($63m) and clothes at simply $20.94m underscore India’s restricted penetration in Russia’s retail markets and electronics worth chains regardless of geopolitical churn,” GTRI stated.

Modi goals to place Indian items in Russia’s market, particularly as soon as the struggle ends and Moscow is reintegrated into the worldwide economic system.

He would search to minimize commerce dependence on oil and defence, aiming for a deal that strengthens ties with Russia whereas leaving room to deepen relations with the West.

“Putin’s go to isn’t a nostalgic return to Chilly Battle diplomacy. It’s a negotiation over danger, provide chains and financial insulation. A modest consequence will safe oil and defence; an bold one will reshape regional economics,” GTRI stated.

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