OPINION — Following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Vladimir Putin anticipated a swift victory from his “particular navy operation.” As an alternative, it’s Kyiv now conducting particular air campaigns towards Russia’s oil and fuel {industry}. Abnormal Russians are starting to really feel the battle’s prices extra immediately and the strain on the Kremlin is rising.
Since late 2023, Ukraine has unleashed a drone offensive, focusing on Russian oil refineries. By 2024, the Biden administration was upset on the influence Ukraine was starting to have, because the US was delicate to modifications in oil costs.
However for Russia, oil and fuel revenues assist fund its ongoing battle towards Ukraine. Russia’s reliance on huge recruitment bonuses to maintain its battle effort in Ukraine is straining its economic system, driving up wages and inflation because the navy competes with civilian industries for labor. In line with a June survey by the unbiased Russian pollster Levada Heart, 58% of Russians named rising costs as their prime concern.
Drones have fashioned the spine of Ukraine’s protection, however now, they’re more and more used on the offensive towards Russia. Over time, drone strikes grew to become extra efficient. By 2025, Ukraine had constructed an intensive fleet of long-range drones and put them to make use of, focusing on Russian oil, hitting Moscow the place it hurts most. Kyiv believes these to be “kinetic sanctions,” for the reason that West has been hesitant to focus on Russian oil for years. And for Putin, gas costs are politically harmful.
Since early August, Ukraine has carried out greater than a dozen strikes on Russian oil refineries, knocking out as a lot as 20% of refining capability – over 1 million barrels a day. In line with The Economist, the assaults have pressured rationing, despatched wholesale petrol costs up by greater than 50%, and pushed Russia to droop gasoline exports. The assaults have continued into September.
The result’s that Russians are caught in lengthy strains ready for gas. Some cities reportedly don’t have any gas provides left. Native authorities budgets are in freefall. All of Russia’s main oil firms have reported revenue declines in 2025, with industry-wide earnings lower in half.
The shortages now dominate the headlines of Russian newspapers. By early September, Putin himself was pressured to admit that Russia is going through a fuel scarcity. The result’s rising social strain throughout the nation. One Russian battle blogger wrote, “We have been half-dead right here for months, digging mud within the trenches, underneath drones each day, counting bullets, whereas again dwelling, oil refineries are burning down in batches.”
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The Kremlin’s official narrative has been that injury to refineries got here from falling particles after drones had been shot down. But on the similar time, Russian authorities broadcast loudspeaker warnings urging residents to not file footage of Ukrainian drones – an implicit admission that direct hits had been occurring and to not broadcast the success of Kyiv’s efforts.
Issues will proceed to worsen for Russia. Ukrainian protection firm Fireplace Level has just lately unveiled two new ballistic missiles, the FP-7 and FP-9, with ranges of 200 km and 855 km respectively, as a part of Kyiv’s push to strike deeper into Russian territory. Kyiv has additionally been deploying AI drone swarms. With time, this know-how might be prolonged to long-range drones.
Whereas these strikes alone could not decide the result of the battle, they’re shaping its trajectory. Ukraine has proven it might deliver the battle deep into Russia’s financial heartland, weakening the very revenues that maintain Moscow’s navy machine.
Putin could be smart to recollect the teachings of Tsar Nicholas II throughout World Struggle I: when the frontlines dragged on and home shortages mounted, social strain at dwelling proved as harmful because the enemy overseas.
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